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Alan Green discusses Gfinity #GFIN, ECR Minerals #ECR & On The Beach #OTB on the Vox Markets podcast

Alan Green discusses Gfinity #GFIN, ECR Minerals #ECR & On The Beach #OTB with Justin Waite on the Vox Markets podcast

Alan Green talks markets, On The Beach #OTB, Mirriad #MIRI and ECR Minerals #ECR on UK Investor Mag podcast

Alan Green discusses markets, On The Beach #OTB and the Atlantic Capital Markets note, Mirriad #MIRI and ECR Minerals #ECR with Jonathan Roy on the UK Investor Mag podcast.

Atlantic View – Time To Go Back To The Beach In Spite of Covid-19?


by John Woolfitt, Atlantic Capital Markets

Time To Go Back To The Beach In Spite of Covid-19?

Fundamentals & Statement Summary

With over 20% share of online sales in the short haul beach holiday market, On The Beach (LON: OTB) are one of the UK’s largest online beach holiday retailers. The group’s long-term mission to become Europe’s leading online retailer of beach holidays is fuelled by significant opportunities for growth on the back of innovative technology, low-cost base and a strong customer-value proposition.

On Tuesday June 30th, OTB announced interim results for the 6 months to March 31st, and said that prior to the escalation of COVID-19 in Europe, it had been trading well. In the first four months of FY20 and following the collapse of the Thomas Cook Group, OTB priced its offerings competitively, and saw total holiday sales grew by 29% for Summer 2020 departures. H1 revenue of £21.4m was down 66% on prior year due to COVID-19 related cancellations, with adjusted PBT down £13.4m to £2.3m due to a significant reduction in demand from mid-February when COVID-19 began to spread to Europe. Net debt of £13m excludes £68.8m of customer monies held in a ring-fenced trust account, and following a successful share placing on 22 May 2020, the group cash position was £50.5m, plus a £75m RCF facility which, at 31 May 2020, remained undrawn.

CEO Simon Cooper commented on the excellent progress in the first four months of the financial year, with the Thomas Cook collapse “driving record levels of brand awareness and achieving sales growth of almost 30% for holidays departing in Summer 2020.“

He added “The onset of the COVID-19 pandemic led to a rapid slowdown in demand for foreign travel followed by the total closure of airspace across Europe by mid-March. Our staff responded brilliantly to ensure that the Group delivered the highest possible customer service standards in the most difficult of circumstances”….”The flexibility and asset light nature of our business model together with our recently strengthened balance sheet and the actions we have taken since the middle of March means we are well placed to capitalise on the inevitable structural changes in the market post COVID-19. As a result, the Board continues to look to the future with confidence.”

Chart and Technicals

Source: FactSet and Hargreaves Lansdown

The inevitable ‘Covid cliff fall’ that characterises the charts of many stocks at present started at the end of February 2020, with the group losing 66% of its value during the following 25 or so days. A strong recovery during March saw OTB shares regain the 50-day moving average, currently at 290p, which it has held onto since April 16th. Provided the stock continues to hold the 50-day moving average, there is every reason to expect OTB shares to regain the benchmark 200-day moving average (purple indicator), currently at 358p, by the end of July 2020.

Summary and Atlantic View
While some may view OTB as a contrarian trade, our dealing team are attracted to OTB’s resilient performance before and during the COVID-19 crisis. The group responded strongly and took full advantage of the Thomas Cook collapse, leading to 30% growth in summer holiday sales pre-Covid, largely due to its innovative business model and low cost base. Added to this OTB have a strong cash position, boosted by strong shareholder support for the May 2020 placing.  In summary, Atlantic Capital Markets are backing a long trade position on OTB, governed very much by the technical picture (358p initial target), and while the uncertain backdrop warrants running a tight stop loss, we are of the view that OTB is better placed than its peers to grow market share as the world starts to move again. In this case, it is time to go back to the beach!

To take advantage of this trading idea, speak to a member of our dealing team on 01872 229000 or visit the Atlantic Capital Markets website here

Ian Pollard – On The Beach #OTB hit by heatwave

On the Beach Group PLC OTB Revenue was heavily impacted by the unprecedented hot summer in Scandinavia leading to lower demand for holidays and widespread discounting of distressed product by Sweden’s leading tour operators. Nonetheless revenue at On the Beach Group for the year to the 30th September rose by 24.5%, profit before tax  by 23.5% and adjusted earnings per share by 20.5%. The World Cup also suppressed holiday demand. The dividend is to be increased by 17.9% to 3.3p per share but.the consumer environment continues to remain challenging.

RPC Group plc RPC Enjoyed significant organic growth in China and US in the six months to the 30th September due to higher added value products. Revenue growth of 7% to £1,892m reflected continuing organic growth of 3.2%. Adjusted profit before tax fell by 2% or 5% on a statutory basis whilst adjusted basic earnings per share rose by 2% . The Interim dividend is increased by 4% to 8.1p per share representing the 26th consecutive year of dividend growth.

Telford Homes PLC TEF increased revenue by 31% in the six months to the 30th September Total profit before tax  was up by16.1 per cent to £10.1m  and the interim dividend is to be increased by 6.3% as the company made what it describes as pleasing progress, with a pipeline of 5,000 homes.

Senior plc SNR has issued a trading update for the ten months to the end of October and expects good progress to be made in 2018.

Luxury Villas For Sale in Greece  http://www.hiddengreece.net

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BT Admits The Cost of Bad Management

BT Group BT.A airs its dirty washing in public after describing the year to the end of March as a challenging one, made worse by headwinds in the UK public sector. It is still managing to increase its final dividend by 10% despite a 19% fall in reported profit before tax, which slumped even more in quarter 4 with a fall of 48%. Reported basic earnings per share were also down by 33% for the year and 49% for quarter 4. And that is not the end of the bad news. Revenue for the current year is expected to be broadly flat and dividend growth will fail to reach the anticipated 10%.

To add to its list of excuses there were further headwinds from the international corporate market and the self inflicted in house disasters created by BT management itself, including hefty fines and avoidable problems in Italy. Management has learned lessons, it humbly claims. A bit late in the day perhaps but we shall see. The lack of heads rolling around on the boardroom and executive canteen floors may be regarded by some as a cause for concern.

Stobart Group STOB is proposing a 50% increase in dividends for the year to 28th February with a final payment of 4.5p per share. The year produced a statutory loss of £8m after deduction of non underlying items of £ 35.4m. On an underlying basis, profit before tax rose by 48.9% and basic earnings per share by 62.4%.

On The Beach Group OTB is paying a maiden interim dividend of 0.9p for the half year to 31st March, after a 7.3% increase in revenue led to a 33.8% surge in profit before tax. Adjusted earnings per share rose by 27.1% and net debt fell by some two thirds to £2.3m. The group describes this as a solid performance, strengthening towards the end of the half year and continuing to grow in the second half.

United Carpets UCG has announced a special dividend of 1p per share which will be paid on the 25th May

Supergroup SGP The year to 29th April produced good sales and profit growth, with revenue ahead by 27.2%. Profit for the year is ecpected to be in line with expectations at £86-87m

Luxury Villas & Houses For Sale In Greece; http://www.hiddengreec

Brand CEO Alan Green discusses On The Beach (OTB) on the Vox Markets podcast

Brand CEO Alan Green discusses On The Beach (OTB) with Justin Waite on the Vox Markets podcast

Reiterate Buy On The Beach (OTB) says VectorVest – Fundamental and technical position continues to improve

VVUKlogoOn The Beach Group (OTB.L) is an online retailer of short-haul beach holidays. The company markets the On the Beach brand to the UK, and the International segment, which includes Sweden activity through Swedish Website (eBeach.se). It offers packaged holidays with options to book single element products, such as flights or hotels. Its technology platform enables customers to package the constituent components of their holiday, including flights and hotels, and transfers to customize holidays from flight and hotel combinations.
Its search facility connects customers to suppliers of travel products. Each travel product is booked separately. The Company is independent from airlines and hotels, so that it offers customers a range of flight and hotel products bookable through online channels, including desktop, mobiles, tablets, and applications and over the phone.

On The Beach Group (OTB.L) was mentioned favourably here on December 13th. Link here to view that article. Although the share hasn’t seen the high percentage moves of a Sopheon or a Victoria both the technical and the fundamental position have improved. The chart is shown below, the share is undervalued and growing earnings strongly.

Since December 13th OTB has pulled back and kissed the high made in August 2016 and is now pushing northwards at the 2017 high. The 52 week high is at 300 and above this level OTB can break strongly towards 400p which is the VectorVest valuation.

Although OTB hasn’t done much since the initial blog entry, the technical and fundamental position has improved and the shares look bound much higher.

OTB should be considered by aggressive investors only as the relative safety (RS) of both below 1 on a scale between 0 and 2. Risk management is important in all financial trading but is especially important in low RS counters.

David Paul

February 28th 2017

Readers can examine trading opportunities on OTB and a host of other similar stocks for a single payment of £5.95. This gives access to the VectorVest Risk Free 5-week trial, where members enjoy unlimited access to VectorVest UK & U.S., plus VectorVest University for on-demand strategies and training. Link here to view.

FREE! For free VectorVest analysis on any stock, go to this link here

VectorVest Unisearch

On VectorVest a simple search using the Unisearch tool will quickly find shares that are undervalued with good fundamentals that have just issued a Buy recommendation. This will give the active trader a short list of many high probability trading opportunities each week. Traders now have the opportunity to spend five weeks discovering VectorVest’s unique simplicity, automation and independent guidance. Just £5.95 buys a 5 week trial to enable deep exploration, or how the system can assist in smarter trading in as little as 10 minutes a day. Powerful tools. Proven strategies. Unique Perspectives.

Link here for more info and to set up a trial. 

European Financial Publishing Limited T/A VectorVest UK (VectorVest) is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority under register number 543038. You should remember that the value of investments and the income derived therefrom may fall as well as rise and you may not get back the amount that you invest. Past performance is not a reliable guide to the future. This material is directed only at persons in the UK and is not an offer or invitation to buy or sell securities. If investors are in any doubt of the suitability of an investment given their individual circumstances, they are recommended to contact an investment manager or independent financial adviser who may be able to provide tailored advice. Opinions expressed whether in general or both on the performance of individual securities and in a wider economic context represent the views of VectorVest at the time of preparation. They are subject to change and should not be interpreted as investment advice. VectorVest and connected companies, clients, directors, employees and other associates, may have a position in any security, or related financial instrument, issued by a company or organisation mentioned on this site. European Financial Publishing Limited is a company incorporated in Scotland under Company Number SC357322 with its registered address at Exchange Tower, 19 Canning Street, Edinburgh EH3 8EH. Email: support@VectorVest.com

On The Beach (OTB) – VectorVest sees business model is uniquely placed to take advantage of difficult conditions in travel industry

VVUKlogoOn The Beach Group (OTB.L) is an online retailer of short-haul beach holidays. The company markets the On the Beach brand to the UK, and the International segment, which includes Sweden activity through Swedish Website (eBeach.se). It offers packaged holidays with options to book single element products, such as flights or hotels. Its technology platform enables customers to package the constituent components of their holiday, including flights and hotels, and transfers to customize holidays from flight and hotel combinations.
Its search facility connects customers to suppliers of travel products. Each travel product is booked separately. The Company is independent from airlines and hotels, so that it offers customers a range of flight and hotel products bookable through online channels, including desktop, mobiles, tablets, and applications and over the phone.

On December 6 2016, OTB published preliminary results for year to 30 Sept 2016. Group PBT increased by 776% to £16.9m (from a FY15 loss of £(2.5)m), on revenues 13% higher at £71.3m. At the end of the year net external cash rose to £26.1m (£10.9m), and a maiden final dividend of 2.2p per share was proposed. CEO Simon Copper said the results were “testament to the strength and flexibility of our agile business model amidst difficult conditions in the travel industry.” “Using our scale to drive exclusivity, our technology to drive innovation and our financial strength, ATOL protection and strong consumer brand to drive customer trust, we are well placed to capitalise on the structural changes in the market which will only accelerate given the difficult conditions in the market this year.”

The strong numbers in the results announcement simply confirmed the OTB investment opportunity, which had been picked up by VectorVest back in September after the share price had retraced from summer highs. The stock was flagged across a number of metrics, including Value, Relative Timing (RT), Growth to PE Ratio (GPE) and VST-Vector (VST) – the master indicator for ranking every stock in the VectorVest database. On value, a measure of a stock’s current worth, OTB is rated at 328.58p, well ahead of the current 263p.

OTBChart

The chart of OTB.L is shown above with the share price shown in candlestick format. The valuation is shown by the green line above the price and earnings per share (EPS)is charted by the blue line in the window below the price. The share is undervalued and growing EPS strongly and linearly. The share price has broken upwards through a major high (made in August 2016) and has pulled back and “kissed” this level which is marked as the horizontal blue line on the chart. With this resistance now in all probability becoming support the share is poised for further gains.

The Relative Safety of the share is less than 1 on the VectorVest program and this reflects and reinforces the risk associated with trading in small companies in their early stages of development. The opportunity is for those traders who have proven experience in managing risk.

Summary: OTB’s business model is uniquely placed to take advantage of the difficult conditions in the travel industry. The stock is also supported by a range of key VectorVest metrics outlined earlier in this blog, warranting a buy rating at current levels.

David Paul

December 14th 2016

Readers can examine trading opportunities on OTB and a host of other similar stocks for a single payment of £5.95. This gives access to the VectorVest Risk Free 5-week trial, where members enjoy unlimited access to VectorVest UK & U.S., plus VectorVest University for on-demand strategies and training. Link here to view.

FREE! For free VectorVest analysis on any stock, go to this link here

VectorVest Unisearch

On VectorVest a simple search using the Unisearch tool will quickly find shares that are undervalued with good fundamentals that have just issued a Buy recommendation. This will give the active trader a short list of many high probability trading opportunities each week. Traders now have the opportunity to spend five weeks discovering VectorVest’s unique simplicity, automation and independent guidance. Just £5.95 buys a 5 week trial to enable deep exploration, or how the system can assist in smarter trading in as little as 10 minutes a day. Powerful tools. Proven strategies. Unique Perspectives.

Link here for more info and to set up a trial. 

European Financial Publishing Limited T/A VectorVest UK (VectorVest) is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority under register number 543038. You should remember that the value of investments and the income derived therefrom may fall as well as rise and you may not get back the amount that you invest. Past performance is not a reliable guide to the future. This material is directed only at persons in the UK and is not an offer or invitation to buy or sell securities. If investors are in any doubt of the suitability of an investment given their individual circumstances, they are recommended to contact an investment manager or independent financial adviser who may be able to provide tailored advice. Opinions expressed whether in general or both on the performance of individual securities and in a wider economic context represent the views of VectorVest at the time of preparation. They are subject to change and should not be interpreted as investment advice. VectorVest and connected companies, clients, directors, employees and other associates, may have a position in any security, or related financial instrument, issued by a company or organisation mentioned on this site. European Financial Publishing Limited is a company incorporated in Scotland under Company Number SC357322 with its registered address at Exchange Tower, 19 Canning Street, Edinburgh EH3 8EH. Email: support@VectorVest.com

Braemar Shipping Fights Back

Braemar Shipping BMS Half year figures to 31st august illustrate the savage decline which has hit the worldwide shipping market. A fall in revenue from £79.6m to £70.2m resulted in earnings per share falling from 13.3p to 0.4p and operating profit declining from £5.3m to £0.3m. Braemar however gives the definite impression that it is fighting back successfully against  the challenges which it faces. Shipbroking has produced a resilient performance in volatile conditions. The Technical division has suffered most but is being realigned to current market conditions and the group claims it is well placed to take advantage of any upturn. The interim dividend is unchanged.

GKN plc GKN The collapse in sterling gave GKN a massive bonus in the 9 months to the end of September with a 21% increase in sales. The currency benefit amounted to £ 474m or some 6% of the rise and three times the miserable 2% which came from from organic growth

Whitbread International WTB claims a good set of results with strong growth for the six months to the 1st September and is raising its interim dividend by 4.9%. Powered by Premier Inns and Costa total revenue grew by 8.1% as both divisions increased market share. Premier Inns revenue rose by 8.9% or 2.4% on a like for like basis whilst total sales at Costa were up by `10.7% or 2.3% on a like for like basis

Pendragon PDG Third quarter sales to 30th September have risen by 5.7% and like for like  profit is up  by 6.3%. Priority is being given to used car sales, which have been particularly strong with revenue growth of 8.3%.  The company has not noticed any change in customer attitudes which can be attributed to the referendum.

On The Beach Group OTB Despite terrorist attacks and the slump in the pound OTB  delivered a year of highly profitable growth and traded well during the 12 months to the end of September. UK revenue grew by 12% which was less than expected but underlying profit before tax will be marginally ahead of the top end of market expectations. Since the last update in July demand for beach holidays has remained resilient.

 Beachfront Property For Sale In The Greek Islands – visit;   http://www.hiddengreece.net

On The Beach – Takes A Dip

The share price of On The Beach (OTB) may have got a bit ahead of itself, as shown by the morning’s fall of 15p (5%)  on news that UK revenue has only grown by 26% in the 4 months to 31st January and the company reports strong growth in both bookings and revenue.

At yesterdays closing price of 305p the shares had nearly doubled since 7th December when they stood at 166p.

OTB claims to be the UK’s leading online retailer for beach holidays. Its target is the disruption of the established operators by having a low cost base, innovative, flexible online technology and a strong customer proposition. Growth is led by the company’s investment in technology and in online and offline marketing, investment which enables it be fleet of foot and beat its more sclerotic competitors by reacting rapidly and successfully to changes in demand, such as the recent huge shift from the eastern Mediterranean and Egypt to the safer shores of the western Mediterranean.

OBT has come a long way from its start up in a terraced house in Macclesfield in 2004 to its 2015 listing on Aim.

Preliminary results for the year to the end of September showed group revenue up by 37% to £63m., adjusted underlying profit before tax up by 46.5% and EBITDA by 44.9%.

Interim results for the 6 months to the end of March are due on the 19th May.

Buy a holiday villa in Greece;   http://www.hiddengreece.net

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