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Ian Pollard – Persimmon – Strong Growth As Sales Decline
NEXT plc NXT first quarter trading to the 27th April was saved only by online sales which rose by 11% and are forecast to continue to grow at the same rate for the remainder of the year. Full price retail sales for the quarter fell by 3.6%. The picture for the remainder of the year is even bleaker with the forecast decline more than doubling to 8.6%. Group profit before tax for the year to January 2020 is expected to show a fall of 1.1%
Persimmon plc PSN Claims that since the start of the year the new build housing market has proved resilient with high levels of employment, and low interest rates, freely available and attractive mortgages, continuing to support consumer confidence. The Group’s current forward sales position is described as being strong with total forward sales revenue, taken to date in 2019, of £2,698 million down from £2,798 million in 2018. Most companies take the view that a rise in sales is a better test of performance.
Rank Group plc RNK experienced flat like-for-like revenue for the quarter ended 31 March 2019, with total revenue up 1%. The poor start to the year with declines of 6% at Grosvenor and Mecca, improving to 0% and !% respectively and leaving group revenue for quarter 3 level, up from a 5% fall in the first quarter.
IWG plc IWG Growth remained strong during the quarter to the 31st March with Group revenue increasing by 10.6% at constant currency rates. The improvement was driven by double digit revenue growth in the Americas, Asia Pacific and EMEA. France, Germany and Spain, also contributed very strongly.
Redhall Group plc RHL the Board anticipates that the full year trading performance for the Group will be materially below its previous expectations. . These were based on the group winning a number of new contracts, which would deliver a strong trading performance in the second half of the year but delays in the award of a number of these projects and a reduction, in the value of Jordan Manufacturing’s contract for a major nuclear infrastructure programme have impacted those expectations. The groups pipeline of opportunities remains strong and the Board anticipates that it will be able to deliver steady growth into 2020.
Sainsbury J. plc SBRY announces underlying profits up 7.8 per cent, ahead of target and final dividend up 11.3% making a total increase for the year of 7.8 per cent.
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Ian Pollard: Fastjet On The Brink
Fastjet plc FJET admits that it has not received the additional funding which it needed by the end of October if it was to continue operating, It has however been able to continue operating beyond that deadline due to some improvement in trading and cash generation. This has allowed it further time to continue discussions with its major shareholders and creditors and these have in part been positive. However without a successful conclusion “in the coming days” it will be unable to continue trading as a going concern.
Next plc NXT is maintaining the full year sales and profit guidance issued 5 weeks ago, despite full price sales growth in quarter 3 slowing substantially to 1.3% compared to the average of 3.1% over the first nine months. Retail sales were the problem with a third quarter fall of 8% whilst online helped to save the day with a rise of 12.7%.
Standard Chartered plc STAN significantly increased its profitability during the first nine months of the year, with underlying profit before tax of $3.4bn rising by 25%. In quarter 3 to the end of September this rose further to 31% whilst on a statutory basis the increase was 37%. Income from Africa & Middle East was down 5 per cent or 3 per cent on a constant currency basis. Macroeconomic and geopolitical headwinds continued to impact performance in the third quarter particularly in the UAE. In Europe & the Americas things were better with income rising by 6 per cent. Management takes credit for the fact that the bank now makes as much profit in a quarter as it did in all of 2016
Computacenter CCC is having to find excuses as to why quarter 3 saw a decline. The only thing it can come up with is that 2017 was better or in technical jargon the comparatives were significantly more challenging. Thus overall Group revenue for the third quarter declined year-on-year by three per cent to £900 million both in real and in constant currency. The UK was particularly hit in the third quarter with a 9% decline in overall revenue although this has still lead to a year-to-date increase of 17 per cent. Germany and France also suffered from third quarter declines. The International sector on the other hand grew by 13%. Expectations for the fourth quarter are for improved growth but not at the levels seen in the first half of the year.
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Ian Pollard – More headwinds, volatility, weak & challenging markets and footfall
Next plc NXT First half full price sales were up +4.5% on last year,. ahead of the +1.0% guidance given in January and the +2.2% given in May and even coming as a surprise to Next itself which admits that its performance was flattered by the unusually warm summer. The reality is that the market is still volatile and those headwinds continue to batter retailers in General. The even harsher truth is that over the past 10 years retail sales have fallen by 10% in whilst like-for-like sales are down by 32%. Next even admits that it does not know what the high street will look like in 10 years’ time which means that future will involve a constant process of reinvention and experimentation in the hope that somewhere along the line, it will get things right.
Imperial Brands IMB updates that the business is performing well with the tobacco business delivering a much stronger second half and volumes for the full year outperforming the industry. Revenue growth will remain in line with previous guidance.
Card Factory plc CARD describes its interim results for the half year to 31st July as “solid”. Online sales growth was strong but like for like sales fell by 3.1% hit by the usual disasters of a weak consumer environment, particularly challenging footfalls across the high street and those dreaded headwinds the effects of which are being mitigated through improved efficiency.Profit before tax and basic earnings per share grew by 17.2% and 17.1% respectively and the shareholders are of course being looked after with a special dividend of 5p per share on top of the maintained ordinary dividend of 2.9p.
Harvey Nash Group HVN has now substantially completed its transformation programme and despite a weaker market, produced a robust performance in the half year to the 31st July. Gross profit rose by 7.2% and on a like for like basis was even stronger with a rise of 11.1%. Profit before tax increased by 19.2% and earnings per share by 22.6%. The interim dividend is to be increased by 6.5% to 1.75p per share. All this, says the CEO, achieved in a challenging market with the UK business delivering a a robust performance and Vietnam performing strongly.
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Ian Pollard – Next #NXT online sales save the day
Next pc NXT Full price sales in the second quarter were up 2.8% on last year and ahead of the 1% expected at the time of the May update. Next believes believe that this over-achievement was due to the prolonged period of exceptionally warm weather, which greatly assisted sales of summer weight products.Expectations for the remainder of the current year to January 2019 are that full price sales will rise by 2.2%, earnings per share will grow by 3.7% and group profit before tax will be down by 1.3%. Full price sales for the 26 weeks to the 28th July were up by 4.5% compared to last year but therein lies the pending nightmare facing most of the major retail clothing retailers. Sales in retail stores declined by 5.3% whereas online sales rose by 15.5%, providing further proof,if proof were needed, that the high street is dying on its feet.
BAE Systems plc BA. claims to have made good progress in the half year to the 30th June and laid a strong foundation to deliver future growth. The interim dividend is being inceased by 2%. Despite the optimism, on a constant currency basis, sales fell 3% to 8.8bn. as a result of reduced Typhoon production, underlying EBITA was down 6% but underlying earnings per share rose by 2%. As defined in IFRS and on a constant currency basis revenue fell by 5%, operating profit was down by 11% and basic earnings per share by 17%
Direct Line Ins Group DLG with half year falls of 15.75% in operating profit and 13.9% in profit before tax, has decided that attack is the best form of defence and is increasing its interim dividend by 2.9%. It is also brave enough to put on its rose tinted glasses and describe these as a good set of results. Perhaps it is purely coincidence that the CEO has chosen this as a good time to depart after 10 years in office.
Hargreaves Services plc HSP After seeing like for like basic earnings per share fall from 17.8p to 3.8p and last years operating profit of 1.4m. tuned into a loss of 1.4m for the current year, the group describes its preliminary results as being “satisfactory”. With profit before tax falling from 4.7m to this years 500,000 it even tries to get its shareholders to accept that it is delivering against its strategic objectives. Hands up those who have doubts.
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Ian Pollard – Next #NXT Saved By Online Growth
Next NXT Full price sales for the 14 weeks to the 7th May have risen by 5% compared to last years figures mainly due to online sales jumping by 18.1% whilst retail fell foul of the high street malaise with a fall of 4.8%. First quarter sales were better than expected helped by the recent unusually warm weather. Sales for the remainder of the year howeverare not expected to be as strong as they were in quarter 1 but they are still expected to show a jump in earnings per share growth from 1.4% to 3.7%. The decline in group profit before tax at 1.3% is also expected to be less than previous guidance of 2.9%
Morrison W. MRW has made a strong start to the year with like for like sales for the 13 weeks to 6th May showing a rise of 3.6% and total sales up by3.8% excluding fuels. The quarter also saw the commencement of wholesale supplies to McColls. The Chief Executive is confident of a strong year ahead.
Barratt Developments BDEV Trading has been strong since the beginning of the year and is inline with expectations, driven by strong customer demand across the country. Total forward sales have risen by 2.5% and the outlook for the full year is also in line with expectations.
ITV plc ITV has delivered a strong first quarter performance on and off scree. Total external revenue rose by 5% with ITV studios up by 11% and online revenue growing by 41%. The Chief executive claims that they are having a strategic refreh whatever that is and claims that it is going well. Good organic growth is expected in Studios for the full year, with double digit revenue growth projected for Online.
BT Group plc BT.A claims it delivered solid results for the 4th quarter to to the 31st March. Reported revenue is expected to be down more than expected at 1% for the year and 3% for the quarter. On an adjusted basis EBITDA and profit before tax for the quarter are each up by 1% and basic earnings per share by 5%. Dividends for the year remain unchanged.
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Ken Baksh – January 2018 market Report……New challenges and opportunities!
by Ken Baksh
Ken has over 35 years of investment management experience, working for two major City institutions between 1976 and 2002.
Since then he has been engaged as a self-employed investment consultant. He has worked with investment trusts, unit trusts, pension funds, charities, Life Fund,hedge fund and private clients. Individual asset managed have included direct equities and bonds pooled vehicles currencies, derivatives and commodities.
Projects undertaken in a number of areas including asset allocation, risk control, performance measurement, marketing, individual company research, legacy portfolios and portfolio construction. He has a BSc(Mathematics/Statistics) and is a Fellow Member of the UK Society of Investment Professionals.
Phone 07747 114 691
January 2018 Market Report
During December, major equity markets displayed an upward trend, assisted by well flagged Central Bank actions and statements, a quieter political mood, and the tail end of a generally upbeat third quarterly corporate reporting season. The European Central Bank continued to move, as expected, to a gradual tapering mode, amidst some very strong economic data releases while there was additional political “noise” from Germany, Austria, Italy and Spain. US market watchers negotiated the Federal Reserve (both rate increase and change in Chairman) as well as the last-minute passage of the Tax Reform Bill. In the Far East, Chinese authorities stepped up regulatory action (specifically the financial sector) while Japan recorded and another quarter of relatively strong GDP growth. Aggregate world hard economic data still showed steady expansion, excluding the UK, as confirmed by the IMF and the OECD with some forecasts of 2018 economic growth in the 3.5% to 4% area. Fluctuating currencies are playing an increasing role in asset allocation decisions, the near 14% move in the USD/Euro over the year being a good example. An American investor into Germany has seen a currency adjusted annual return of approximately 25%, some 20% higher than the other way around!
Equities
Global Equities rose over December, the FTSE ALL World Index climbing by 1.94% in dollar terms. The UK broad and narrow indices outperformed over the month while underperforming the World, in sterling terms, over the full year. Emerging markets had a relatively strong December thus completing a full year return of nearly 35% in dollar terms. In sterling adjusted terms Germany and Japan led the year-to date returns, amongst the major markets, followed by the USA, although the tech-heavy NASDAQ, Asia ex-Japan, and Emerging Markets all showed yearly gains of between 25% and 35% in local currencies. The VIX index ended the year at 10.26, a fall of around 25% over the full year.
UK Sectors
Sector volatility during the month was high, mining outperforming utilities by about 15%. Over the full year, mining shares (the best performing major sector) have outperformed utilities (the worst) by approximately 40%. Within the overall UK fund universe over 2017, smaller caps outperformed larger stocks, and the difference between active and passive performance was much smaller than that experienced in 2016.Within the broad UK All company sector, investment trusts outperformed unit trusts by about 3.5% over the full year. The average IA mixed investment pooled fund (40%-85% shares) delivered a total return of about 10% in 2017.
Source: Trustnet
Fixed Interest
Gilt prices showed marginal gains over the month, the ten-year yield finishing the month at 1.23%. Over the full year gilts showed a price decline of about 1%, thus delivering a total return of about zero. Other ten-year yield movements were mixed, American, Japanese and German ten-year yields ended December at 2.43%,0.05% and 0.43% respectively. UK corporate bonds rose slightly in price terms over the month and outperformed gilts over the full year. Amongst the more speculative grades, there were mixed trends, with emerging market bonds, in local currency terms, having a better month and US high yield hardly moving. Convertible bonds dropped slightly during the month but rose about 6% since the beginning of the year and I expect this outperformance over gilts to continue. See my recommendations in preference shares, convertibles, corporate bonds, floating rate bonds etc. A list of my top thirty income ideas (all yielding over 5%) from over 10 different asset classes is available.
Foreign Exchange
Amongst the major currencies, the Japanese Yen was the major December feature falling 1.2% in trade weighted terms. On the other side of the coin, the Euro rose 0.57%. The Euro strength at least partially reflected growing economic optimism and a gradual resolution to the German political stalemate. These volatile FX moves have played an increasing role in asset class allocations and this look set to continue. In sterling terms, Japanese and Continental European equities markedly outperformed USA and the UK.
Commodities
Another mixed month for commodities. Oil showed a further bounce, the most recent OPEC agreement being broadly in line with expectations and some supply issues e.g North Sea and Libya. There were mixed trends amongst the precious metals, while the copper price rose by 7.8% during the month and over 31% over the full year. Over the twelve-month period, palladium rose by over 57% in price terms, while iron ore dropped about 7%. Recent mining conferences have focussed on both the China effect in reducing supply, and the growing requirements of the emerging EV (electric vehicle) markets. See my recent note on how to play the mining and oil sectors into 2018 while also enjoying an above average dividend yield (paid quarterly).
Looking Forward
Over the coming months, I expect Central Bank statements and political events e.g. German coalition formation, Catalonian election follow-up, Italian election campaigning, Brexit,Korea, Iran, USA, and the major corporate reporting season (both figures and forward looking statements) to be the main forces driving major asset classes . US watchers will start preparing for the next interest rate hike, under the new Fed Chairman Powell as well as fleshing out the winners and losers from the recent Tax Reform Bill, and watching the machinations ahead of the latest funding deadline (19th January). In Japan, Shinzo Abe is likely to push for changes in the Constitution and reinforce the easier monetary and fiscal economic policy stance following his resounding election victory. Hard economic data (as opposed to sentiment surveys) will shows that the UK economic growth will be slower in 2017 compared to 2016 and downgrades to 2018 have recently been made by many organizations. Anecdotal evidence from retailors usually released early January will give some clues as to consumer trends. BREXIT discussions enter a new phase with discussions on the timing and nature of the new “Trade Deal”, as well as transitional arrangements being a major focus.
On a valuation basis, most, but not all, conventional government fixed interest products continue to appear expensive against current economic forecasts and supply factors, and renewed bond price declines and further relative underperformance versus equities should be expected, in my view. Equities appear more valued, apart from some PE metrics, (especially in the US), although not in bubble territory, but there are wide variations, and opportunities, in both broad asset classes. Equity investors will be looking to see if superior earnings growth can compensate for higher interest rates in several areas. Corporate results from US, Europe and Japan were, on aggregate, up to expectations at the third quarter 2017 stage, although EY noted that the number of UK profits warning were about 10% higher than the previous year at the nine-month stage, mostly in the home improvement, motor and other retail areas. Outside pure valuation measures, sentiment indicators and the VIX index are still relatively low though showing more day to day variation. Growing cyber-currency attention also demonstrates investor skittishness, search for new assets.
In terms of current recommendations,
Continue to overweight equities relative to core government bonds, especially within Continental Europe and Japan. However, the equity selection should be very focussed. Certain equity valuations are rather high, especially on a PE basis (see quarterly). A combination of sharper than expected interest rate increases with corporate earnings shocks would not be conducive to strong equity returns.
- I have moved UK equities from underweight to a more neutral position following the market 2017 underperformance and valuations of certain of the major global stocks. Within the UK equity space, I suggest moving the balance of small/large cap stocks now back to neutral following both the outperformance of the former and the volatility in the currency (part post-election, part BREXIT). Ongoing Brexit debate, political stalemate could cause more sterling wobbles, which in turn could affect sector/size choices. I would expect to see more profits warnings e.g WPP #WPP, Provident Financial #PFG, Dixons Carphone #DX, Carillion #CLLN, Paragon #PAG, Next #NXT, Centrica #CNA etc and cautious statements as we move through into the results season.
- Within UK sectors, some of the higher yielding defensive plays e.g. Pharma, telco’s and utilities have attractions relative to certain cyclicals. Oil and gas majors may be worth topping up after recent weakness and balance sheet improvements and have lagged the recovery in the spot price. Concentrate on the major diversified although there are currently some very attractive equity and fixed interest ideas in the mid/small cap area.
- Continental European equities preferred to those of USA, for reasons of valuation, and Central bank policy. This strategy, in sterling adjusted terms worked very well through 2017 (DAX outperforming the S&P by about 8%) and I expect to continue. Improving economic data adds to my enthusiasm for selected European names, although European investors may be advised to focus more on domestic, rather than export related themes. Look at underlying exposure of your funds carefully. Remember that certain European and Japanese companies provide US exposure, without paying US prices. I have recently written on Japan, and I would continue to overweight this market, especially in hedged form, despite the large 2017 outperformance. recently.
- Alternative fixed interest vehicles, which continue to perform relatively well against conventional government bonds, have attractions e.g. floating rate funds, preference shares, convertibles, for balanced, cautious accounts and energy/ emerging/speculative grade for higher risk. These remain my favoured plays within the fixed interest space.
- UK bank preference shares still look particularly attractive, and could be considered as alternatives to the ordinary shares in some cases. Prices have shown good capital growth since the beginning of the year as well as offering annual yields more than 5%, but are still recommended for more cautious investors with a desire for regular annual income. Recent results and the November “stress test” results show that generally UK balance sheets are generally in good shape, and I see negligible risk of default on preference share dividends for the recommended stocks.
- Alternative income, private equity and renewable funds have exhibited their defensive characteristics during recent equity market wobbles and are still recommended as part of a balanced portfolio. Reference could be made to the renewable funds (see my recent solar and wind power recommendations). Selected infrastructure funds are also recommended for purchase after the recent weakness (see note).
- Any new commitments to the commercial property sector should be more focussed on direct equities and investment trusts than unit trusts (see my recent note comparing open ended and closed ended funds), thus exploiting the discount and double discount features respectively. However, in general I would not overweight the sector, as along with residential property, I expect further price stagnation especially in London offices. The outlook for some specialist sub sectors and property outside London/South-East, however, is currently more favourable. Investors should also consider some continental European property plays. See my recent note on this sector.
- I suggest a selective approach to emerging equities and bonds, especially where significant dollar loan exposure and or potential geo-political uncertainties are present e.g. Brazil, Venezuela, South Africa. Although the overall valuation for emerging market equities is relatively modest, there are large differences between individual countries.
Full fourth quarterly report will be available in January and suggested portfolio strategy/individual recommendations are available. Ideas for a ten stock FTSE portfolio, model pooled fund portfolios (cautious, balanced adventurous, income), 30 stock income lists, hedging ideas and a list of shorter term low risk/ high risk ideas can also be purchased, as well as bespoke portfolio construction/restructuring. I expect more clients to consider switching some final salary pots to SIPP over coming quarters, as transfer values start to slip (partially in line with rising gilt yields) and can work with you providing bespoke portfolios according to client needs.
Good luck with performance! Ken Baksh 01/01/2018
Disclaimer
All stock recommendations and comments are the opinion of writer.
Investors should be cautious about all stock recommendations and should consider the source of any advice on stock selection. Various factors, including personal ownership, may influence or factor into a stock analysis or opinion.
All investors are advised to conduct their own independent research into individual stocks before making a purchase decision. In addition, investors are advised that past stock performance is not indicative of future price action.
You should be aware of the risks involved in stock investing, and you use the material contained herein at your own risk
The author may have historic or prospective positions in securities mentioned in the report.
The material on this website are provided for information purpose only.
Please contact Ken, (kenbaksh@btopenworld.com) for further information
Ian Pollard – Next #NXT succumbs to High St woes
NEXT NXT colder weather and a big rise in online sales helped Next to beat expectations for full price sales in the 54 days between 1st November and the 24th December, with a rise of 1.5% as against an expected fall of -0.3%. Within that figure however, retail sales were a disaster with a fall of 6.1% compared to a rise of 13.6% in online sales. Trading for the year as a whole, the 52 weeks to January 2018,was nothing less than disastrous with group profit before tax down by 8.3% slightly better than the expected 9.3%. For 2018 the decline is expected to continue albeit at a reduced rate as subdued consumer demand and a continued decline in real incomes continue to wreak havoc on the high street.
Plus 500 PLUS expects revenue and profits for the year to the 31st December will be ahead of expectations after record revenues were achieved in the fourth quarter, as well as 246,000 new customers.
Oncimmune ONC listed on AIM in May 2016 with its main aim being to enter the Chinese market with its early cancer detection test. The Chinese are heavy smokers and lung cancer deaths alone, now exceed 700,000 each year, due in part to late detection. Oncimmune’s test can detect cancer up to 4 years earlier than conventional methods and the company announced over Christmas that it has reached a distributorship deal with Genostics, a Hong Kong company which has acquired over 6 million shares in Oncimmune at a price of £1.56. Oncimmunes shares jumped to £1.29 yesterday, a rise of 23%
December traffic statistics saw Wizz Air increase capacity by 19.4% and passengers by 19.8%, with load factor up slightly at 87.5%. Ryanair December traffic rose by 3% whilst load factor was up by 1% to 95%
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450,000 British Companies Financially Distressed
Begbies Traynor BEG announces doom and gloom for many British companies with 450,000 of them suffering from signs of financial distress, even before the effects are felt of any interest rate rise on Thursday. The number has risen by 27% from a year ago and 250,000 have become “zombie” companies with no net worth and who will not have the reserves available to survive increasing employment costs due to changes in the minimum wage and the Revenues crackdown on personal service companies.
Next plc NXT is unable to determine any underlying sales trend in the quarter to the 31st October, the main impact appearing to have come from the weather which does not seem to say much for management’s marketing skills. Sales rose significantly in August and September coinciding with the arrival of warmer weather and temperatures which were higher than last year. The end result is that third quarter full price sales rose by 1.3% compared to last year but 1.2% of that growth came from new space. Total sales including markdowns rose by 0.8% but for the year to date they are down 1.2%. The future does not look any brighter and a further decline of 0.3% is expected for quarter 4.
Paddy Power Betfair PPB found quarter 3 to the end of September to be encouraging and trading since the interim results has been good. The international businesses have performed well with Australia producing an exceptional revenue rise of 29% followed by the US with a rise of 18%. Group revenue for the quarter was up by 9% led by 11% in sports revenue but offset by a 3% drop in online revenue. Underlying EBITDA rose by 7% and it is anticipated that full year EBITDA will be between £450 and £465m.
Biome Technologies BIOM saw third quarter revenue jump from £0.9m. to £1.5m. making a rise of 46% for the year to date and the fourth consecutive quarter of EBITDA profitability. The progress and momentum seen so far are expected to continue for the remainder of the year.
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NEXT- Another Special Dividend As Decline Continues
NEXT plc NXT does not expect any recovery during the remainder of the current financial year despite second quarter full price sales having risen by 0.7% compared to the first quarter when they were down 3%. Retail sales for the half year to 29th July were down by 7.4% whereas Directory sales rose by 11.4% but shareholders are being kept happy with another 45p per share special dividend to be paid on the 1st November. . The forecast for the full year to January 2018 is that the decline in profit before tax will remain unchanged from previous guidance at between -13.9% to -6.4%. The problem seems to be half year and end of year sales which act as a drag on the total sales performance.
Aviva plc AV is increasing its interim dividend by 13% after the fourth consecutive year of growth in half year operating profit, this time by 11%. Sales have increased across the group with strong growth in Europe and the UK.
Centamin CEY Gold production in the second quarter rose by 14% over the first half but is still down on last year and whilst profit before tax rose from the first quarters level, for the half year as a whole it is only just over half of last years figure, at $38m. Production costs at US$609 per oz were also well up on last years figure of US$461. Nonetheless the interim dividend is increased by 25% to 2.5 US cents per share and the second half is expected to be strong with full year production guidance of 540 oz. being maintained.
Portmeirion Group PMP produced an 18% rise in profit before tax for the half year to the 30th June and gives itself a very restrained pat on the back, describing its performance as “positive”. Revenue rose by 16%, EBITDA by27% and earnings per share by 21%. The interim dividend is to be increased by 5.7%.
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Next Celebrates Falling Profits With a Special Dividend
Next NXT Celebrates its weak trading performance by announcing a special dividend of 45p per share to be paid on the 1st August. Total sales for the 13 weeks to to 29th April fell by 3% as mayhem on the high street continued. On a like for like basis, new space which added 1.6% to sales, made the like for like fall look even worse, at 4.6%. Profit before tax is expected to get worse as the year progresses with the best expectation now being for a fall of 6.4% compared to the previous hope for a fall of at best, only 1.3%.
Morrisons W. MRW performed well in the 13 weeks to the 30th April as it became more popular with customers attracted by lower prices. Like for like volume became more positive and expectations for the full year remain unchanged.
Royal Dutch Shell RDSA enjoyed a strong first quarter as debt was reduced and the dividend ( unchanged) was covered for the third consecutive quarter. Industry conditions in chemicals became stronger, total bpf oil equivalent per day rose by 2%, realised prices for global liquids rose by 64% and for natural gas by 10%. In come before tax rose from a loss of $642m in the same quarter last year to a profit of over $ 3 billion. However impacts are expected in the 2nd quarter from lower gas volumes and upstream earnings will suffer from divestments and lower production in the Netherlands.
Ladbroke Coral LCL expects full year results will be inline. From st January to 23rd. April group net revenue rose by 5% after falls in retail net revenue of 2% in the UK and 3% in Europe. Digital net revenue helped to save the day with a rise of 22%.
esure Group ESUR has made a strong and better than expected start to the year with a rise in gross written premiums of 29% between the 1st January and the 23rd April. Moror led the way with a rise of 29%.
G4S plc GFS enjoyed a strong start to the year with revenues rising by 8.9% at constant exchange rates in the three months to the 31st March. Developed markets showed double digit organic growth whilst emerging markets remained flat.