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In our December investment review, Ken discusses the macro picture in the US, Europe, China and Japan before looking at the effects of inflation. We then look at moves over the past 2 months before moving to the UK economy and issues such as consumer confidence, the trade deficit and Govt deficit, insolvencies and recession expectations. Ken highlights the good job that PM Rishi Sunak has done in steadying the ship, before we look at how previous stock picks in October and November have performed. These include Legal & General #LGEN, Smith & Nephew #SN, Begbies Traynor #BEG, Greencoat UK Wind #UKW, Whitbread #WTB, Frontier IP #FIPP, Enquest Bond #ENQ2 and Georgia Capital #CGEO. Ken then picks out four more stocks for growth, These are:
Lloyds Preference Share #LLPC
Asia Dragon Trust #DGN
Legal & General Cyber Security ETF #ISPY
DECEMBER 2022 Market Report
During the one-month period to 30th November 2022, major equity markets, as measured by the
aggregate FTSE All – World Index, rose by over 5%, reducing the year-to-date loss to 18%, in $ terms.
Chinese equities, were very strong gaining over 30% and taking the broad emerging market indices
and Asia with them. The VIX index fell, finishing the period at a level of 22.22.
Government Fixed Interest stocks also rose over the month. The UK 10-year gilt ended the month on
a yield of 3.16% with corresponding yields of 3.77%, 1.94% and 0.25% in USA, Germany, and Japan
respectively. Speculative and lower quality bonds, however,fell in price terms. Currency moves
featured a weaker US dollar. Commodities were mixed.
Over the recent month, the OECD has made further downgrades to world economic growth and
anecdotal evidence from several third quarter reporting companies suggests that the slowdown is
accelerating. e.g. Maersk (“freight rates peaked….decreasing demand”).
At the same time, key data indicators (factory gate and commodity prices, shipping rates, inflation
expectations) suggest that headline price growth is set to slow in coming months, although labour
compensation developments must be watched carefully .
More volatility expected in oil prices as western countries prepare to impose a price cap on Russian
FTX,a leading crypto exchange,and a sprawling network of affiliated firms filed for bankruptcy
protection dealing another blow to the crypto sector.
Recent US Federal Reserve meetings and informal comments by Jerome Powell and other Fed
governors remain hawkish and further increases are expected though calls for 50bp rather than
75bp are increasing. The latest rise took the benchmark rate to the 3.75%/4% range.At a speech at
the Brookings Institute yesterday,the Fed Chairman sent mixed signals that the fight against
inflation “had a long way to go” while also sending a strong hint that the next rate rise,mid
December, would be 50bp rather than 75bp
would be Downward projections to economic growth, and upward moves to inflation forecasts
were also released.
Recently announced inflation indicators showed October headline CPI of 7.7%, lower than estimates,
while the core inflation rate rose by 6.3%. First quarter negative GDP growth followed by second
quarter of -0.9% signals a “technical recession”, although labour/employment trends still seem
reasonably robust. Third quarter preliminary GDP growth of 2.6%, annualised, while higher than
estimates concealed a weaker consumer component offset by a strong trade balance. Recent
consumer sentiment indicators (November composite PMI for example), retail sales, housing
activity, construction figures and the Empire States Survey back this up, showing declining trends
into recent weeks. . The Fed’s own forecasts expect GDP growth of 0.2% and 1.2%, and core PCE
growth of 4.5% and 3.1% respectively for 2022 and 2023
US midterm election results showed the Republicans narrowly taking control of the House of
Representatives while the Democrats retained the Senate, a situation which could minimise more
extreme policies, but also thwart some of Biden’s ambitions. Donald Trump has vowed to return in
2024, although the Republican Party is far from united at the current time
The European Central Bank raised interest rates by half a percentage point on July 22nd, and a further
75bp in September also pledging to support surging borrowing costs from sparking a eurozone debt
crisis. The ECB raised interest rates by another 75bp, to their highest level since 2009, on 27th
October, pledging to continue increasing borrowing costs in the coming months to tackle record
inflation, despite a looming recession. On 29th November, Christine Lagarde, the ECB president,
warned that the bank was “not done” raising interest rates, saying that inflation “still has a way to
First quarter 2022 GDP for the Eurozone showed a weaker than expected trend especially in
Sweden, Italy and Germany and more recent indicators show a continuation of this trend,
exacerbated by the Russia/Ukraine conflict, supply chain issues, and rapidly increasing costs. The
“flash” PMI figure for October, released on the24th October, fell to 47.1 the lowest since November
2020, although German quarterly GDP growth figures, just released, were marginally ahead of
Current ECB staff projections foresee economic growth of 2.8% for 2022, a sharp reduction on the
previous forecast, and further downgrades could be likely in the wake of the ongoing Ukrainian
conflict and related gas shortages.
November Eurozone inflation, just released, of 10.0% was lower than expected.with slower gains in
energy and services ,and faster growth in food prices.
ASIA excl JAPAN
The GDP figures, shown below (source: CLSA, CEIC) show that 2022 and 2023 growth
projections for the Asia excl Japan region compare favourably with those of other developed
regions. The reasons include a “better” Covid experience, selective commodity exposure,
tourism, continued FDI Investment (especially China related) and better initial fiscal
situations (compared with late 90’s for example) and limited direct connections with the
Russia/Ukraine situation. The forecasts do not assume a total easing of Chinese covid rules.
Headline inflation of around 5% (core 3%) also compares favourably.
Geo-political concerns must be taken into account, especially In Taiwan.
The 5.5% official GDP growth target for 2022 looks clearly unachievable, with some investment
banks now forecasting below 3%. Official data shows weakening trends in consumer spending, fixed
asset investment and construction activity while more recent “live” tracking data e.g., mobility,
cement production and electricity use also showed subdued economic activity. Official data for the
third quarter, just released shows growth of 3.9%. The major historic negative issues of a very
restrictive anti-Covid policy and major disruption within the property market have now been
supplemented by increasing US restrictions on the production/export of certain key electronic
At the time of writing a property “rescue” package has been implemented, while on the Covid front,
tens of thousands of people have taken to the streets protesting strict coronavirus controls and
suppression of freedom of speech, triggering clashes with police and security forces.While nothing is
certain in Xi’s approach to the Covid Pandemic, there is a growing feeling that certain measures will
be relaxed/increase in vaccination.
The Japanese economy contracted 1.2% on an annualized basis during the third quarter of 2022,
missing forecasts of 1.1% growth, and considerably weaker than the 4.6% expansion recorded during
the second quarter. This was the first down quarter of the year reflecting weak domestic
consumption, a slowdown in business investment and an acceleration in imports. Estimates for the
full year seem to fall mainly within the 1.5%-2.0% band. Inflation, while still well below international
peers, rose by 3.6% in October, the highest since 1982, driven by currency weakness.
Recently the Japanese government unveiled a $197 billion stimulus package to ease the impact on
consumers of soaring commodity prices and a falling yen, while the BoJ stuck by its ultra-loose
policy, maintaining very low interest rates and re-affirming it yield control policy.
Within the UK, live activity data (e.g November Gfk data) continues to show a weaker overall trend,
especially within the services sector. According to this survey, released late November, covering the
mid November period, consumer confidence remains very low, amid the cost-of-living crisis.The
retail sales figure for October did however show a slightly better than expected reading but this may
have been distorted by the Queen’s mourning period . Unemployment, however, is still at a very
low level, although recent official figures did show a tentative slowing in hiring intentions.
Inflation continues to rise, the October CPI and RPI readings registering hikes of 11.1% and 14.2%
respectively. Kantar and the ONS both reported food/grocery prices rising about 15% year on year as
well as turkey/egg shortages.Happy Christmas!
The PSBR was starting to deteriorate again, largely as a results of rapidly rising interest (index linked)
payments and expectations of higher public sector pay and state pensions. The most recent “official”
figure showed September PSNB at £20 billion, much larger than forecast and the second largest
since monthly records began in 1993, according to the ONS.
Despite some relief with the recent energy price package, until April at least, (but not other utilitiessee below), shop price inflation, greater Council Tax “freedom”, upward interest/mortgage rate
pressure, stalling house prices, accelerating rents, insolvencies/evictions, legacy Brexit issues and ,
strike activity, will continue to be headwinds and the outlook for economic growth over coming
quarters is highly uncertain. Both the Bank of England as well as the OBR and now the OECD are
expecting recessionary conditions for one to two years.
Experts at consultancy EY-Parthenon reported that company profit warnings had jumped from 51 to
over 86 over the third quarter of 2022 citing increasing costs and overheads as the main reason,
especially in consumer facing businesses. Another report from Begbies Traynor, Latest Red Flag Alert
Report for Q3 2022 – 07:00:07 19 Oct 2022 – BEG News article | London Stock Exchange quoted that
over 600,000 business were already in severe financial distress.
Monetary policy has tightened from a 0.1% interest rate in December last year to the 1.25% rate set
in June and a further 50bp at the August, meeting, followed by 50bp in September, taking the
benchmark rate to 2.25%. Markets are expecting rates to be above 4.0% by mid-2023.
On 17th November, Chancellor Hunt told a sombre House of Commons that a massive fiscal
consolidation including £30 billion of spending cuts and £25 billion of tax rises was needed to restore
Britain’s credibility and tame inflation. The OBR said they expected the economy to shrink 1.4% and
not regain pre -pandemic levels until 2024.Inflation was expected to remain over 7% next year.
While many of the proposals had been leaked, and the market reaction was muted (first objective
achieved!), there were a few positive surprises (e.g help for NHS and education) and several
From an investor point of view the reduction in tax free allowances for investment income and
capital gains, was higher than expected. Make full use of ISA etc while can!
Monthly Review of Markets
Global Equities rose over November (+5.02%) extending the quarterly recovery and reducing the
year to date decline to 18.04% in dollar terms. All major indices climbed with especially large gains
registered in China, which also benefited Emerging Market and FT Asia-excl Japan bourses.
Continental European indices were also relatively strong, while the NASDAQ and Nikkei lagged in
relative terms. The VIX index fell over the month to end November at a level of 22.22. The ten –
month gain of 29.04% reflects the degree of risk aversion compared with the” relative calm” of last
December (medical, geo-political and economic!)
Sector moves were again very mixed over the month although most ended in positive territory. The
few losers included telco’s and tobacco On the other hand, miners, utilities, life companies,
financials,retailers and food were relatively strong. The FTSE100 outperformed the All-Share Index
and is about 3% ahead of the broader index since the beginning of the year. By IA sectors, UK active
unit trusts are underperforming benchmark indices, trackers etc, so far this year, with small
company funds even more so. Income based funds, by contrast, are significantly outperforming the
averages. “Balanced” funds, by IA definitions, are falling by about 8%-10% so far this year (Source:
Trustnet November 30th).
Major global government bonds rose in price terms over November, the UK 10-year yield for
instance finishing the month at a yield of 3.16%. Other ten-year government bond yields showed
closing month yields of 3.77%,1.93% and 0.25% for US, German and Japanese debt respectively. UK
corporate bonds also bounced strongly, up approximately 4% on the month in price terms.
Speculative bonds, however, bucked the trend falling in price terms.
Year to date, the composite gilt index has fallen approximately 22% underperforming UK higher
quality corporate bonds in price terms and more so in total return.
Check my recommendations in preference shares, selected corporate bonds,fixed interest ETF’s ,
zero-coupons, speculative high yield etc. A list of my top ideas from over 10 different asset classes
is also available to subscribers.
Currency moves featured a sharp fall in the US dollar, largely following the better-than-expected
inflation rate. Sterling rose against the US dollar but fell against the Japanese Yen and Euro. Currency
developments during November also included modest strength in the Chinese Yuan.
A mixed performance by commodities during November with weakness in Oil and many agricultural
commodities and strength in copper, Iron ore and the precious metals. Year to date, uranium and
the energy complex are strongly up in price terms while industrial metals copper, aluminium and
iron have all shown price declines of over 13%. Gold has also dropped in dollar terms by about 3% so
far this year.
Major central banks have remained hawkish with reducing QE/commencing QT and accelerating the
timing and extents of rate increases as the main objectives, especially where inflation control is the
sole mandate. In a growing number of smaller economies where US contagion, politics, commodity
exposure inflation/fx are also issues, several official increase rate increases have already taken
effect. Japan, however, has continued to adopt stimulative measures, up to now.
Global Government Bonds have stabilised somewhat although differing inflationary outlooks and
supply concerns could lead to continued volatility in the sector.
For equities, the two medium term key questions will be when rising interest rates eventually cause
equity derating/fund flow switches, government, corporate and household problems, and how the
rate of corporate earnings growth develops after the initial snapback. Going forward, withdrawal of
certain pandemic supports, uncertain consumer and corporate behaviour and cost pressures are
likely to lead to great variations by sector and individual company. The third quarter reporting
season produced several negative surprises e.g large American technology companies and UK
building and property companies.
As well as maintaining an overweight position in UK equities, it may be worth initiating or adding to
Japanese positions within an international portfolio. The US market has fallen about 19% so far this
year (NASDAQ -30%) but remains a relative underweight in my view. Margin pressure headwinds,
political uncertainty, prospective dollar weakness and technology sector volatility must be balanced
against the current stock market ratings. Continental European equities appear cheaply rated in
aggregate, but great selectivity is required. Within the Emerging market space I currently favour
exposure to the Far East.
Another major asset allocation decision would be to keep part of the conventional “fixed interest”
portion in alternative income plays in the infrastructure, renewables, and specialist property
areas. Many instruments in this area provide superior capital growth, income, and lower volatility
than gilts for example. Recent stock market volatility has brought several renewable stocks back to
I am also adding selected preference shares to the “fixed interest” allocation, where annual yields
of approximately 6% are currently available.
UK Equities continue to remain a relative overweight in my view, based on several
conventional investment metrics (see above), longer term underperformance since the
Brexit vote, style preference (value overgrowth) and international resource exposure
although be aware of the numerous domestic headwinds I have highlighted above.
Value should be favoured over growth, and the FTSE 100 favoured over the FT All-Share.
Apart from the style drift, remember that the non sterling element of leading FTSE 100
companies and sectors is relatively high
By sector, Oil and Mining equities continue to benefit from above average yields, strong
balance sheets, dollar exposure and secular demand e.g copper, cobalt for electronics,
construction, electric vehicles etc. Any moves regarding Chinese re-opening the economy
would be another positive for this sector.
Remain overweight in pharmaceuticals and underweight in non-renewable utility stocks
which may suffer from consumer and government pressures, and no longer trade on yield
premia, especially against the backdrop of higher gilt yields.
Construction materials, especially cement will benefit from growing
infrastructure/renewable initiatives., although rising cost pressures and falling housing
activity must also be considered.
Banks, may enjoy some relative strength from rising interest rates, but continue to
monitor the recession/loan growth and default risks.These mixed trends were very
evident in the recent third quarter figures. Preference Shares as well as ordinary shares
have attractions in this area
Housebuilders and real estate-expect depressed activity and remember that the rising
interest rates have not yet been fully factored into bricks and mortar property yields.
Industry data and anecdotal news from both housebuilders and REIT’s suggest further
weakness to come.
Retailers are in general suffering from a combination of falling sales and rising costs and
clear trends in consumers “trading down” are apparent. Certain on-line operations e.g
Asos additionally are suffering from an element of post-Covid comparison.
Domestic Breweries/pubs etc are having a hard time with stalling consumer’s
expenditure, supermarket competition and rapidly rising costs.
Airlines may suffer as a result of large dollar costs, uncertain foreign travel outlook and
often high debt levels
Extra due diligence at stock level more generally will be required as I expect a growing
number of profit warnings and downbeat forward looking statements. See the EY and
Begbies statements on page 7 above.
However,takeover activity is also clearly increasing with, for example, private equity
snapping up UK-listed companies at the fastest pace for more than twenty years. Foreign
takeover, stake building is also increasing, current weak sterling being a factor, with
Vodafone under scrutiny by a French (who already have BT interest!) investor. Biffa (waste
management),MicroFocus(technology),Aveva(software) and RPS(professional services)
have all succumbed to foreign takeovers in recent months, much by “strong dollar”
American or Canadian organizations.
JAPANESE EQUITIES also remain an overweight in my view, although my recent
comment re hedging may “nuanced “now following the extreme currency weakness and
surprise intervention. Unlike most other major economies, Japan is expected to continue
its easy money policy. Exporters have benefitted from the plunging Yen although higher
input costs and more “off-shoring” also must be considered. The prospective price/book
ratio of 1.19 is attracting interest of corporate and private equity buyers, while the
prospective yield of 2.6% is above the world average and compares very favourably with
USA (1.7%). Corporate governance is rapidly improving with diverse boards, reduction of
cross holding, higher dividends etc. There are clear signs that inward investment attracted
by the pro-growth, pro-deregulation agenda and relatively low costs (average Japanese
annual wage $30000 compared with $75000 USA) is increasing. Private equity stake
building interest in Toshiba and growing activity in the property sector (discount on a
discount in a cheap currency) demonstrate the search for value in Japan. Investors may
wish to adopt a partially rather than fully hedged FX position following recent
On a valuation basis (see table above) the forward PE multiple of 12.9 is at a considerable
discount to the world, and especially US average (18.0)
EMERGING MARKETS-Very difficult to adopt a “blanket” approach to the region even in
“normal times”, but especially difficult now, with so many different COVID, commodity,
sectoral mix, debt, geo-political and increasingly natural disaster variables. The IMF recently
warned that several emerging nations could disproportionately suffer from a combination of
COVID and adverse reaction to “tapering” by developed counties e.g., FX/Interest rate
pressures. Six countries have already defaulted during the pandemic, and the IMF is currently
in various stages of bail-out discussions with Pakistan,Argentina,Zambia,Sri
Lanka,Ghana,Tunisia and Egypt.
Within the emerging/frontier universe I continue to have a relatively positive view on Asia.
The economic fundamentals were discussed on page 16 above, and the forward-looking
multiples and dividend growth metrics appear relatively attractive in a global context. Any
move by China to open more fully after their severe Covid lockdown, would of course
additionally help. Exposure to the entire area can be achieved through a number of ETF’s and
also investment trusts currently on discounts
If a country-by-country approach is adopted, I have a longer term positive view on Vietnam
where, the nation is supported by positive demographics, with a population of near 100
million, an emerging middle class, and a recipient of strong foreign direct investment.
Qualconn,an Apple supplier, Intel(semi-conductors),Lego and Samsung(mobile phone plant)
have all recently invested in new capacity in the country. Other big names moving chunks of
production from China to Vietnam include Dell and HP (laptops), Google(phones)and
Microsoft (Games Consoles) The economy is expected to grow at around 6.5% this year (7.7%
Q2 2022) and current inflation is running at about 3.5%. On a relatively low prospective PE
based on forecast earnings growth over 20%, Vietnamese equities appear good value. India,
although quite highly rated and a major oil importer, warrants inclusion in a diversified
portfolio, and is currently receiving some fund flows from “overweight” Chinese portfolios.
Indonesia, the last of my current Asian ideas benefits from a commodity boom, strong
domestic market, low debt, relatively stable currency, forecast 5% GDP growth and 5%
Caution is required in many South American markets with poor COVID-19 situations,
deteriorating fiscal balances, weak investment, low productivity (see below) and
governments in a state of transitioning e.g Brazil. However, some stock market
valuations currently appear interesting in the region, which, so far, has been relatively
unaffected by events in Ukraine. Commodity exposure, deglobalization beneficiary,
valuation and recovery from a very low-level account for some year-to-date stock
market relative out- performance. Many of these countries also raised interest rates
at an earlier stage, allowing relative currency strength, compared with say the Euro,Yen or Sterling.
Certain areas within Central Europe are starting to receive more attention, mainly on
valuation grounds, but the lingering Covid effects and indir
ect effects of the Russia/Ukraine invasion should be borne into account. Regarding the
latter, a reduction/termination of Russian gas supply could have a serious recessionary
impact in certain countries. Large refugee influxes e.g Poland are also starting to
create budgetary/social issues.
Comments re great selectivity above also apply to emerging market debt. For the
more adventurous fixed interest investor combinations of well above average yields
(sometimes caused by pre-emptive moves last year), stable fiscal and FX situations
and, diversified economic models could provide outperformance from carefully
• COMMODITIES– Gold spiked to over $2000 in March, a recent high, when Russia invaded
Ukraine, but has since fallen about 12%, although of course, remaining reasonably stable in
many local currency terms . The longer-term prospects for more cyclical plays continue to
look brighter. Increased renewable initiatives, greater infrastructure spending as well as
general growth, especially from Asia, are likely to keep selected commodities in demand at
the same time as certain supply constraints (weather, labour and equipment shortages,
Covid, transport) are biting. Anecdotal evidence from reporting companies RTZ, BHP and
Anglo American appear to suggest that the industry is enjoying a bumper time, and with
disciplined capex programmes, extra dividends and share buy-backs are commonplace!
Current rumours of a cautious relaxation of the Chinese Covid policy, may provide a boost to
• Wheat and other grain prices have fallen from the levels reached following the Russian
invasion of Ukraine, but the current grain shipment complications, planting/harvesting
schedules within the region and extreme global meteorological conditions are expected to
lead to further price volatility. If the conflict is prolonged it will affect millions of people
living in such places as Egypt, Libya, Lebanon Tunisia, Morocco, Pakistan and Indonesia that
could have political consequences. There has been renewed interest in agricultural funds as
well as the soft commodities themselves.
GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE remains a longer-term theme, and will be built into
the many infrastructure initiatives, being pursued by Europe, USA, and Asia. The
Russia/Ukraine conflict is accelerating the debate, and hopefully the action. There are
several infrastructure/renewable investment vehicles which still appear attractive, in
my view, combining well above average yields and low market correlation with low
premium to asset value. The recent volatility in natural gas prices has highlighted both
risks and opportunities in the production and storage of energy from alternative
sources. However, increasing levels of due diligence are required, in committing new
money to the area overall. Financial watchdogs across the world are sharpening their
scrutiny of potential “greenwashing” in the investment industry on rising concerns that
capital is being deployed on misleading claims.
• However, in the shorter term, the Russian invasion of Ukraine has precipitated a global
energy crisis, that has forced countries, especially in Europe to look for ways to quickly
wean themselves off Russian oil and gas, and reconsider timelines of commitments to
cut the use of fossil fuels. At the time of writing, it seems highly likely that USA will
increase oil and gas output, UK North Sea may see further investment and EU coal
consumption could increase.
• Another area currently in the ESG purist cross hairs is “nuclear”. Ignoring the fact that
nuclear weapons have not been used in anger since 1945, and the fact that some deterrent is
needed, (now?), where should the confused investor stand when it comes to nuclear power
substituting coal power? Japan, UK and Germany are all studying proposals to revive their
nuclear power capacities. I have some interesting “uranium play” ideas for those interested.
• ALTERNATIVE ASSETS-this group, encompassing private equity, private debt, hedge
funds, real estate, infrastructure, and natural resources is expected to continue growing both
in actual and relative terms over coming years.
Traditional asset management groups are racing to expand offerings in alternative
investments as they seek to boost profitability and head off competition from private
equity groups (see graph below).
I have, for a while, recommended some exposure to this area maybe as part of the
former “gilt allocation”. With strong caveats re liquidity, transparency, dealing
process, I still adopt this stance, continuing to use the investment trust route. So far
this year, gilts have declined approximately 24% while my favoured UK renewable
closed-end funds have appreciated by around 6% in capital terms and delivered about
6% in annual income. Please contact me directly for specific ideas
COMMERCIAL PROPERTY The MSCI/IPD Property Index showed a sharp fall in the total return across all
properties in October, the decline of 6.4% (-6.8% capital values, +0.4% income),taking
the year to date return to -1.6% (capital -5.2%,Income +3.8%).The monthly decline
accelerated the downward trend started in July this year, especially in Industrial
Properties. Rental growth however was positive at +2.4% in October..or 4.4%
annualised for the ten month period
Several analysts are down grading their estimates for the sector following the rapid move
in UK longer and shorter-term interest rates. Property asset valuations take time to
materialise where there is a lag between balance sheet date and results publication in
the listed area. Live traded property corporate bonds, however, have already moved
Quoted property giants British Land and Land Securities both reported deteriorating
conditions witing their third quarter statements, expecting further valuation declines
following rising yields.
Full asset allocation and stock selection ideas if needed for ISA/dealing accounts, pensions.
Ideas for a ten stock FTSE portfolio. Stock/pooled fund lists for income, cautious or growth
portfolios are available. Hedging ideas, and a list of shorter-term low risk/ high risk ideas
can also be purchased.
I also undertake bespoke portfolio construction/restructuring and analysis of legacy
Independence from any product provider and transparent charging structure
Feel free to contact regarding any investment project.
Good luck with performance!
Ken Baksh Bsc,Fellow (UK Society of Investment Professionals)
1st December ,2022
Important Note: This article is not an investment recommendation and should
not be relied upon when making investment decisions – investors should conduct
their own comprehensive research. Please read the disclaimer.
Disclaimer: Opinions expressed herein by the author are not an investment
recommendation and are not meant to be relied upon in investment decisions.
The author is not acting in an investment, tax, legal or any other advisory
capacity. This is not an investment research report. The author’s opinions
expressed herein address only select aspects of potential investment in
securities of the companies mentioned and cannot be a substitute for
comprehensive investment analysis. Any analysis presented herein is illustrative
in nature, limited in scope, based on an incomplete set of information, and has
limitations to its accuracy. The author recommends that potential and existing
investors conduct thorough investment research of their own, including detailed
review of the companies’ regulatory filings, and consult a qualified investment
advisor. The information upon which this material is based was obtained from
sources believed to be reliable but has not been independently verified.
Therefore, the author cannot guarantee its accuracy. Any opinions or estimates
constitute the author’s best judgment as of the date of publication and are
subject to change without notice.The author may hold positions in any of the
The author explicitly disclaims any liability that may arise from the use of this
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Electric vehicle drivetrains developer Equipmake Holdings (EQIP) edged up revenues by 3% to £3.71m in the year to May 2022. A much greater proportion of the revenues came from commercial and production contracts. The loss was more than trebled to £5.2m. There was still £1.88m of cash in the balance sheet and since then it raised £10m gross at 4.25p a share in its Aquis flotation. A partnership with an electrical aerospace specialist will generate initial orders for prototypes worth £400,000.
VSA Capital (VSA) has reiterated that it will report a first half loss. The Aquis corporate adviser is holding a showcase event for Aquis companies on 29 November.
Inqo Investments (INQO) has sold its investment in Zambia-based honey producer Bee Sweet Honey There was a ZAR950,000 loss on the investment.
Guanajuato Silver (GSVR) has made a partial early repayment of its silver and gold loans using 97,000 ounces of silver and 846 ounces of gold. In the three months to September 2022 produced 329,297 ounces of silver and 3,226 ounces of gold, while lead and zinc sales have become significant. The trend of quarter-on-quarter production increases is expected to continue.
Clarify Pharma (PSYC) has acquired £250,000 stakes in Nasdaq-listed companies Atai Life Sciences Inc (ATAI) and Compass Pathways (CMPS). Both companies are involved in developing psychedelic treatments.
AQRU (AQRU) is reducing the number of employees by three-quarters to save money. Monthly overheads will fall by 65%. Yields on the company’s cryptocurrency app are being reduced.
Cooks Coffee Company (COOK) has issued up to NZ$2m of convertible notes to wholesale investors. The cash will fund the growth of the café existing chain and acquisitions, as well as paying off some existing debt.
Ananda Developments (ANA) is seeking shareholder approval to acquire the 50% of DJT Group that it does not own, which has a licence to grow >0.2% THC cannabis for research. The cost is £3.2m in shares. The process of gaining approval to grow and manufacture medicinal cannabis has been formalised.
IamFire (FIRE) says investee company WeShop user downloads and transactions are increasing.
Marula Mining (MARU) has increased its stake in the Blesberg lithium mine from 5% to 100%. The cost is $1.7m. This is subject to regulatory approval. Mobile mining equipment and the majority of processing equipment is on the site and the infrastructure is being upgraded. First deliveries of lithium ore are expected in December.
Diesel additives supplier SulNOx Group (SNOX) has appointed Steele Environmental as a US distributor for shipping markets and land-based transportation and revealed a positive evaluation with Caspian Marine Services.
Invinity Energy Systems (IES) has cut the nominal value of its shares so that it can issue more shares. A 2.2 MWh energy storage sale has been made to the company’s Taiwan resale partner. That is ten Invinity VS3 batteries.
EDX Medical (EDX) announced a collaboration for the European cancer biomarker programme with Tianjin Bioscience. This should result in the development of cost-effective cancer tests.
MiLOC Group Ltd has changed its name to Crushmetric Group Ltd. A placing raised £22,000 at 20p a share.
A company owned by NFT Investments (NFT) chairman Jonathan Bixby and non-exec Mike Edwards have has acquired 20 million shares at 0.8p a share. Finance boss Rob Smith has purchased 724,503 Chapel Down Group (CDGP) shares at 25.5p each. A company associated with chief executive David Immelman bought 50,084 DXS International (DXSP) shares at 5.454p each.
Former Aquis-quoted company Jigsaw Insurance Services is recommending a 204p a share cash offer from insurance business consolidator PIB Group Ltd. There could also be additional consideration of 14p a share depending on completion accounts. That values the bid at up to £24.1m. Harrogate-based Jigsaw was formerly known as NCI Vehicle Rescue and it left what was then known as ISDX in February 2015, so it still comes under the Takeover Panel rules.
Michelmersh Brick (MBH) expects 2022 pre-tax profit to be ahead of expectations and it is acquiring pre-built brick products manufacturer and brick fabricator Fabspeed for an initial £6.25m. The Fabspeed acquisition will be earnings enhancing. There could be up to £2m more payable depending on performance over 24 months. A share buy back programme of up to £3m is being launched.
Tatton Asset Management (TAM) continues to generate impressive net inflows to its assets undermanagement. They were £907m in the six months to September 2022, helping to offset market declines. The 50%-owned 8AM Global added a further £1bn taking the group total to £12.3bn, which has already risen to £12.9bn in November. Pre-tax profit improved from £6.77m to £7.68m and the dividend was raised by 12.5% to 4.5p a share.
finnCap (FCAP) has ended bid talks with fellow broker Panmure Gordon. It was not possible to find a mutually acceptable structure or terms for the merger.
Osirium Technologies (OSI) is raising £1.53m at 2p a share and the cash will provide additional working capital and help the cyber security business reach cash breakeven earlier than previously expected. Annualised cost savings of £1m have been identified and £650,000 of these have already been implemented. Sales director Stuart McGregor is replacing chief executive David Guyatt and he will become executive chair instead. Allenby has increased its forecast 2022 revenues to £1.8m and slightly reduced the expected loss to £3.22m.
Tissue products manufacturer Accrol (ACRL) increased interim revenues by 64% to £121.1m through a combination of higher prices and volume growth. Net debt was £30.5m at the end of October 2022 and it could fall to £24.4m by April 2023. A full year pre-tax profit of £6.7m is forecast.
Omega Diagnostics (ODX) has received the £4m deferred consideration for the sale of the CD4 business. Net cash is expected to be £6.2m by the end of March 2022. This can be used to expand the health and food intolerance operations. The US is a market where more investment is planned. Omega Diagnostics remains loss making but could move into profit in 2023-24.
Electrolyser developer Clean Power Hydrogen (CPH2) is having problems with the design and operation of its cryostat unit in the MFE 220 test unit. Scaling up the unit has been a challenge. This delayed the expected October deliveries of two initial MFE 220 units. One customer has cancelled the order and is going with a rival electrolyser. A redesign of the unit should cure the issues. On the current forecasts, the cash could reduce to £3m by the end of 2024 and then rise the following year, but further delays could mean the cash reduces more quickly than expected.
Curtis Banks Group (CBP) is in advanced discussions concerning a bid from Nucleus Financial Platforms, which is conducting due diligence. Susan McInnes has been appointed as an independent non-executive director of Curtis Banks.
DeepMatter Group (DMTR) is the latest company with plans to cancel the AIM quotation because management believes that it will be easier to raise cash as a private company. The digital chemistry data analysis business says major shareholders support the plan. DeepMatter wants to raise £1m before leaving AIM and then a larger amount after the departure.
Trafalgar Property Group (TRAF) has moved into hydroponics. The residential property developer has acquired assets and leasehold premises from May Barn Horticultural Consultancy, which is controlled by Trafalgar Property director Dr Paul Challinor, for £30,000. Trafalgar Property will concentrate on assessing plant propagation requirements and studies on tissue culture of plant material. The current work is on lettuce varieties and hydroponic tomato seedlings, as well as seedlings of Nicotiana benthamiana for future development for cosmetics and pharmaceuticals.
Real Good Food (RGD) has secured additional financing of £2.5m from Hilco Private Capital, which lasts for 12 months and is in addition to the £6.3m from the Leumi ABL. This will help to fund restructuring and cost reduction.
Zanaga Iron Ore Company (ZIOC) is acquiring a controlling shareholding in the Zanaga iron ore project from Glencore Projects in return for shares that will give Glencore a 48.26% stake. Glencore can appoint two directors and is required to retain the shares for six months. Glencore has exclusive marketing rights for the iron ore produced at the mine. A general meeting will be held on 13 December to gain shareholder approval for the deal.
Structural steel supplier Severfield (SFR) improved interim profit and it is continuing to improve in the second half. In the six months to September 2022, revenues improved from £195.9m to £234.9m through a combination of underlying growth and higher steel prices. Underlying pre-tax profit rose from £10.3m to £12.1m, including a doubled contribution of £600,000 from the India business. Net debt was £15.8m at the end of September and the interim dividend was raised from 1.2p a share to 1.3p a share. The UK and Europe order book is worth £464m and the India order book is £143m.
Devro (DVO) has agreed a 316p a share bid from Netherlands-based Saria, which has been interested in bidding for the sausage skins supplier since the beginning of 2022.
Cardiff Property (CDFF) increased NAV from 2549p a share to 2756p a share in the year to September 2022. The current share price is 2420p. The dividend was raised from 18.5p a share to 20.5p a share. There has been a downturn in confidence in the Thames Valley property market.
Alkemy Capital Investments (ALK) says its subsidiary Tees Valley Lithium has received full planning permission for Europe’s largest lithium hydroxide refinery in Teeside. This will supply the electric vehicle battery market. Production could commence in 2025.
National World (NWOR) has decided not to bid for Reach (RCH).
Motor dealer Caffyns (CFYN) improved interim revenues from £110.8m to £119m, although underlying pre-tax profit dipped by one-third to £1.6m. New car volumes were ahead of the market and there was a 12% decrease in like-for-like used car volumes. The interim dividend is unchanged at 7.5p a share.
Ross Group (RGP) has raised £136,000 at 1.5p a share. Ross has entered into a global exclusive supply chain management agreement with the Energy Group LLC in the US to manage green hydrogen production and projects. This could be the start of a significant business for Ross.
Alan Green joins the Podcast to dive into three Uk equities and the key themes driving markets this week.
- Pets at Home (LON:PETS)
- Halfords (LON:HFD)
- Harland & Wolff (LON:HARL)
We start by looking at the FTSE 100 and whether we could see all time highs in London’s leading index – at the same time the UK economy enters a recession.
Pets at Home and Halfords were big winners during the pandemic but their shares have drifted since. We crunch the numbers from their interim updates.
Harland & Wolff have received a game changing contract win for 3 battleships from the Ministry of Defence. We question how high Harland & Wolff shares could go?
New VOX markets podcast now out with our CEO Alan Green, covering Warpaint #W7L, Cizzle Biotechnology #CIZ & Frontier IP Group #FIPP
New VOX markets #podcast now out with our CEO Alan Green discussing:
– Warpaint #W7L
– Cizzle Biotechnology #CIZ
– Frontier IP Group #FIPP
EDX Medical (EDX) completed its reversal into shell TECC Capital in a deal valued at £12m and £1.2m was raised at 6p a share. The share price returned from suspension and increased by 64.1% to 5.25p, but it is still below the placing price. EDX Medical develops digital diagnostic products and service for cancer, heart disease, neurology and infectious diseases.
Non-fungible token platform developer Looking Glass Labs Ltd (NFTX) has been introduced to the Access segment of Aquis on 14 November. Web 3.0 Holdings Ltd was acquired prior to the flotation. This is a Web3 technology company that owns a retail technology platform. The company’s brand House of Kibaa has designed a next generation metaverse for 3D assets. This enables functional art and collectibles to exist across different NFT blockchains. Sales of digital assets have totalled C$6.2m and there is a 5% royalty stream on secondary sales. There were early deals at 17p a share and the share price has fallen to 13.5p.
Oscillate (MUSH) is planning to acquire Hi55 Ventures Ltd, a fintech platform designed to help companies with payroll flexibility. Trading in the shares was suspended at 0.75p each. The share-based deal values Hi55 at £28m at a notional share price of 1.29p. Existing Oscillate shareholders will be given a warrant exercisable at 1.29p for each share they own. Hi55 allows employees to access their salary as they earn it. This finance can be delivered in partnership with MasterCard.
Vulcan Industries (VULC) has not been able to conclude the proposed agreement to acquire Peregrine X Ltd. Discussion continue so a different structure to the deal might be possible. Vulcan Industries continues to sell its other interests. Components manufacturer Tim Rainham has been sold for £1. The business had net liabilities. Earlier this month, raised £157,000 in a placing at 8.2p a share.
Quetzal Capital (QTZ) says that proposed acquisition target Tap Global has no direct exposure to the defunct cryptocurrency company FTX.
Watchstone Group (WTG) has agreed settlement terms with former auditor KPMG. The final payment is £4.95m. Net assets were £11.4m at the end of June 2022, which was mainly cash. The share price increased by 11.5% to 29p, which values Watchstone at £12m.
Tectonic Gold (TTAU) has recommenced drilling at the Specimen Hill project in Queensland. This is drilling below a previous mine and one result was 8.17g/t gold over one metre in distal veins. A shortage of drilling rigs delayed the restart. The drilling should be completed in a fortnight.
Wishbone Gold (WSBN) has exercised its option to acquire the Anketell gold-copper project in Western Australia. This cost £320,000 in shares at 14.75p a share and £50,000 in cash.
Web3 gaming and infrastructure company Pioneer Media Holdings Inc (PNER) has closed the first tranche of the previously announced placing, and this raised C$580,000 at C$0.10 a unit – one share and 0.5 of a warrant exercisable at C$0.25. This is a huge discount to the market price. The share price slumped 14.3% to 30p. This cash will finance technology development and working capital. Olivia Edwards has been appointed to the board.
Diesel additives supplier SulNOx Group (SNOX) has secured an order in South Africa and a repeat order in Costa Rica. Agriculture has proved to be a large customer base.
Aquaculture and geotracking technology developer OTAQ (OTAQ) increased interim revenues by 11% to £2.03m and the reported loss fell from £881,000 to £538,000. The cash raised when OTAQ moved to Aquis will finance further technology investment. Management says that there will be a period of adjustment. Nigel Wray increased his stake from 15.8% to 19.35%.
IamFire (FIRE) is raising £3.5m at 2.5p a share.
BWA Group (BWA) has £7,367 of cash and net liabilities of £168,000. It is seeking to raise more cash.
Marula Mining (MARU) has increased its fundraising to £519,500 at 2p a share. Richard Lloyd withdrew himself from re-election as a director.
Totally (TLY) reported further progress in its latest interims with trading generally back to pre-lockdown levels. Demand for insourcing of operations has grown significantly and used up more working capital. Revenues grew but underlying pre-tax profit was flat at £2m. However, earnings fell because of a higher tax charge. Contracts worth £37m were extended. Underlying full year pre-tax profit is expected to improve from £3.7m to £5.7m, helped by insourcing demand as the NHS tries to reduce waiting lists.
Delays in commencing manufacturing and building up sales of Stereax small battery cells have knocked the Ilika (IKA) share price, which slumped 34.7% to 32p. The commercial prototypes will not be available until the end of 2023. It is also taking longer than anticipated for the larger Goliath batteries to reach the position where they have equivalence with lithium-ion cells. Forecast group revenues have been cut for this year and next year, while the 2024-25 forecast has been slashed from £18.1m to £2.7m by Berenberg. That indicates the length of the delays. That would put Ilika into a net debt position.
Wynnstay Group (WYN) is acquiring Cornwall-based feed supplier Tamar Milling for an initial £1.4m. This is immediately earnings enhancing. In 2020-21, Tamar Milling revenues were £6.4m and pre-tax profit of £420,000. Wynnstay says that its 2021-22 results will be better than expected. Grain, seed and fertiliser revenues have been strong and joint venture businesses will make a higher than expected profit contribution. There is also a boost in the figures from the accounting treatment of the hedging of wheat contracts.
Chain and transmission equipment manufacturer Renold (RNO) continues to trade well in tough times. Interim revenues were 22% ahead at £116.3m, while underlying pre-tax profit was two-fifths higher at £7.3m. The acquisition of Industrias YUK in Spain meant that net debt increased to £34m, but management is still confident that it can finance further acquisitions when they are identified. Higher interest rates have helped to reduce the net pension deficit by one-quarter to £56.6m. The order book is worth £99m, which is a record.
Digital coupons and loyalty technology provider Eagle Eye (EYE) is acquiring France-based Untie Nots, which provides promotion and gamification SaaS products to retailers. The deal will cost up to €38.8m. The initial payment is €9.1m in cash and €5.9m in shares at 555p each. A placing will raise £7m at 555p a share and the rest of the cash will come from existing net cash of £3.6m. The deferred payments of up to €23.8m will depend on achieving revenue targets in 2022, 2023 and 2024, which equate to annual growth of 60%, as well as achievement of a minimum EBITDA margin.
Harland & Wolff (HARL) is involved in Team Resolute, a consortium that is preferred bidder for a £1.6bn contract to build Royal Navy support vessels. This will require significant investment in the Belfast shipyard. The Appledore shipyard in Devon will also be involved.
Poolbeg Pharma (POLB) and consortium partners have been awarded a €2.3m grant by an Irish government fund to develop an oral vaccine candidate from pre-clinical to phase I readiness. The aim is to induce mucosal immunity. The week before Poolbeg identified multiple novel drug targets for the treatment of respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) through it s collaboration with OneThree Biotech.
N4 Pharma (N4P) is raising £1m at 2p a share. A broker offer could raise up to £1m more. The share price slumped by 30.5% to 2.05p. The cash will be used for the development work relating to loading SiRNA onto delivery vehicle Nuvec, plus for funding the investigation of possible acquisitions.
Standard listed BSF Enterprise (BSFA) says that its subsidiary 3d Bio-Tissues has produced three small prototype fillets of cultivated meat, which is a step towards a full-scale cultivated meat fillet. This comes at a time when the US FDA has given approval to a cultivated meat product for the first time. The cultivated meat fillets were 30mm in height and 15mm in diameter and weighed 5 grammes. They were some of the first 100% cultivated meat fillets produced in the world. The comparisons with conventional meat were described as “comprehensively positive”. The first full-scale cultivated meat fillet should be showcased early next year.
Braemar (BMS) increased interim revenues by 46% to £69.4m, helped by the strength of the dollar. Underlying pre-tax profit more than doubled to £10.5m and Braemar moved into a net cash position of £1.8m. The interim dividend was doubled to 4p a share.
Trading continues to improve at Castings (CGS) and interim revenues were 23% higher at £85.6m, while pre-tax profit recovered 38% to £7.5m. Price increases offset cost rises. There is strong demand for HGVs and short-term component order books remain strong. The interim dividend is 3.84p. Net cash is £25.6m and that should rise significantly in the second half.
J Smart Contractors (SMJ) is paying a final dividend of 2.27p a share. In the year to July 2022, revenues fell from £10.4m to £7.43m as construction activity declined. Thanks to a £6.06m profit on the sale of investment properties a pre-tax profit of £8.19m was reported. That is down from £14.9m the previous year, although that included a revaluation surplus of £12.1m. NAV is £124.7m, including net cash of £20.7m.
Standard list Rockpool Acquisitions (ROC) announced heads of terms for the purchase of Amcouri Group, which is a holding company for nine engineering and manufacturing businesses. The potential cost is £22.3m in ordinary shares based on the forecast profit forma EBITDA of £5.4m.
Net Zero Infrastructure (NZI) has terminated acquisition talks with Taylor Construction because it could not raise the cash required for the deal. NAV is £650,000.
Further to the announcement of 24 October 2022 in which Kavango announced it had conditionally raised £3,000,000 before expenses by the issue of 166,666,660 new ordinary shares of £0.001 each in the capital of the Company (the “New Ordinary Shares”) at a price per share of 1.8 pence, the Company is pleased to announce that the Financial Conduct Authority has approved its prospectus dated 18 November 2022 (the “Prospectus”) issued in connection with:
– the placing of 158,555,555 New Ordinary Shares (the “Placing Shares”);
– the subscription of 8,111,105 New Ordinary Shares (the “Subscription Shares”);
– the issue of 60,000,000 New Ordinary Shares to Power Metal Resources PLC (further to the announcement of 8 July 2022) (the “Kanye Consideration Shares”);
– the issue of 2,000,000 New Ordinary Shares to LVR GeoExplorers (Pty) Ltd (further to the announcement of 16 September 2022) (the “LVR Shares”);
– the issue of 13,478,951 New Ordinary Shares to Mindea Exploration and Drilling Services (Pty) (further to the announcement of 10 June 2021) (the “Fee Shares”); and
– admission of the enlarged share capital and up to 395,918,682 New Ordinary Shares.
The Prospectus has been published in electronic form and will shortly be available on the Company’s website at:
A copy of the Prospectus has also been submitted to the National Storage Mechanism and will shortly be available for inspection at
In connection with the publication of the prospectus and as announced by the Company previously, the following warrants have been issued, subject to Admission:
· 166,666,660 warrants to the placees and the subscribers of the placing and subscription announced on 24 October 2022, as applicable, and 27,777,777 warrants to Arigo Capital Limited, as announced on 25 October 2022. The warrants are exercisable at 3p per share for a term of 24 months from the date of issue. These warrants are conditional upon the approval of shareholders and details of a general meeting at which such approval will be sought will be sent to shareholders in the near future.
· The issue to Power Metal Resources PLC of the following:
o 30,000,000 warrants at an exercise price of 4.25p per share for a period of 30 months from 8 July 2022;
o 30,000,000 warrants at an exercise price of 5.5p per share for a period of 30 months from 8 July 2022; and
o 15,000,000 variable price warrants (“VP Warrants”) with a six-month life to expiry, with a minimum exercise price of 3p and an actual exercise price at a 15% discount to the volume-weighted average share price on the date of exercise per share. Should all VP Warrants be exercised by 8 January 2023, Power Metal Resources PLC will receive 15,000,000 replacement warrants, on the same exercise terms and with a 12-month life to expiry from the issue date.
· 2,000,000 warrants to LVR GeoExplorers (Pty) Ltd, exercisable for two years from the date of issue and with an exercise price of 8.5p per share.
· 8,333,334 warrants to Tamesis Partners LLP, exercisable for two years from the date of issue and with an exercise price of 3p per share.
Admission and Total Voting Rights
Application will be made for the Placing Shares, the Subscription Shares, the Kanye Consideration Shares, the LVR Shares and the Fee Shares to be admitted to the Standard List segment of the Official List and to trading on the main market of the London Stock Exchange plc (“Admission”). It is expected that Admission will become effective and that dealings in the Placing Shares, the Subscription Shares, the Kanye Consideration Shares, the LVR Shares and the Fee Shares will commence at 8.00 am on 25 November 2022.
Following Admission, the total issued share capital of the Company will consist of 705,569,314 Ordinary Shares*. Therefore, the total number of voting rights in the Company is 705,569,314 and this figure may be used by shareholders in the Company as the denominator for the calculations by which they will determine if they are required to notify their interest in, or a change in their interest, in the share capital of the Company.
*This figure is inclusive of the 27,777,777 shares which are being admitted on 30 November 2022, as announced on 25 October 2022.
Further information in respect of the Company and its business interests is provided on the Company’s website at www.kavangoresources.com and on Twitter at #KAV.
For further information please contact:
Kavango Resources plc
+46 7697 406 06
First Equity (Joint Broker)
+44 207 374 2212
SI Capital Limited (Joint Broker)
+44 1483 413500
Building on decades of experience, hVIVO is currently the only CRO focused on challenge studies, providing world class expertise and capabilities in challenge agent manufacture, a unique portfolio of established human challenge models to test a broad range of infectious and respiratory disease products, and specialist drug development and clinical consultancy services through its Venn Life Sciences subsidiary.
hVIVO contract awards Since the release of interim results in early September, hVIVO has announced a massive £13.4mn contract with a US biotechnology client, a repeat customer, to test its respiratory syncytial virus antiviral candidate using hVIVO’s established RSV Human Challenge Study Model.
Although difficult to assess the challenge study market, Liberum Capital estimates there are around 20 challenge studies conducted each year.
Using the prevailing average contract size of £6.7mn, this indicates £100mn-£135mn of challenge study work each year, excluding any additional income through manufacturing and validating bespoke challenge agent.
Around 60 per cent of hVIVO’s current order book relates to biotech customers and the balance relates to big pharma, with the group carrying out three active challenge studies for big pharma in the first half of 2022 and two full-service challenge studies with values exceeding £25mn. Moreover, hVIVO has signed up eight challenge studies with big pharma companies since 2018, 12 and all the big pharma clients are repeat customers.
Improving financials Backed by a bumper order book and having booked £9mn of group revenue in July and August 2022, house broker FinnCap expects the group’s hVIVO division, which carries out the challenge studies, to grow revenue from £29.4mn last year to £42.5mn in 2022 and account for 82 per cent of its total revenue estimate of £51.1mn. Furthermore, taking account of challenge study contract wins, revenue from Venn Life, laboratory services and non-challenge studies, the brokerage estimates that £53mn of its 2023 revenue estimate of £56mn is already covered.
SGS’s expertise is in performing influenza challenge studies, but it also has Malaria challenge, and RSV challenge models.
17 November 2022 – Poolbeg Pharma (AIM: POLB, OTCQB: POLBF, ‘Poolbeg’ or the ‘Company’), a clinical stage infectious disease pharmaceutical company with a unique capital light clinical model, announces that it will be holding a Capital Markets Day for analysts and institutional investors on Wednesday 30 November between 10am – 12:45pm.
The event, which will be chaired by Jeremy Skillington, Chief Executive Officer, will provide insights into a number of the Company’s growing pipeline of infectious disease vaccines and treatments and one of its innovative artificial intelligence programmes which is unlocking the power of human challenge trial data. In addition, attendees will gain a greater understanding of how Poolbeg’s unique model and business development strategy can drive growth from the infectious disease market. A networking lunch will follow at the end of the session.
There will be an opportunity for attendees to take part in a Q&A with Poolbeg’s management team including Ian O’Connell, Chief Financial Officer and David English, VP of Business Development as well as a number of guest speakers:
Dr Tal Almog of CytoReason, one of Poolbeg’s artificial intelligence partners; a world leader in AI which to date has worked with five of the world’s top ten pharma companies
Derek Gilroy, Head of the Centre for Clinical Pharmacology and Professor of Immunology at University College London and has pioneered research examining the molecular and biochemical pathways that regulates the resolution of acute immune reactions
Professor Brendan Buckley, co-founder of Minerva Medical, acquired by IQVIA and Firecrest Clinical, acquired by ICON plc where he held the position of Chief Medical Officer. Brendan has over thirty years of experience in clinical research and has published over 150 scientific papers
Further speakers will be announced in advance of the event
Analysts, institutional investors and media are welcome to attend the event in the City of London. Due to restrictions on numbers, it will not be possible for all interested parties to attend in-person. However, a live webcast will be available for retail investors and others to view the presentations here.
To register your interest to attend the in-person event, please RSVP to firstname.lastname@example.org.
A recording of the presentation will be made available on the Company’s website after the event here.
Poolbeg Pharma Plc
Jeremy Skillington, CEO
Ian O’Connell, CFO
+44 (0) 207 183 1499
finnCap Ltd (Nominated Adviser & Joint Broker)
Geoff Nash, Charlie Beeson
+44 (0) 207 220 0500
Singer Capital Markets (Joint Broker)
Phil Davies, Sam Butcher
+44 (0) 207 496 3000
J&E Davy (Joint Broker)
Anthony Farrell, Niall Gilchrist
+353 (0) 1 679 6363
Melanie Toyne Sewell, Rozi Morris, Tim Field
+44 (0) 20 7457 2020
About Poolbeg Pharma
Poolbeg Pharma is a clinical stage infectious disease pharmaceutical company, with a capital light clinical model which aims to develop multiple products faster and more cost effectively than the conventional biotech model. The Company, headquartered in London, is led by a team with a track record of creation and delivery of shareholder value and aspires to become a “one-stop shop” for Big Pharma seeking mid-stage products to license or acquire.
The Company is targeting the growing infectious disease market. In the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic, infectious disease has become one of the fastest growing pharma markets and is expected to exceed $250bn by 2025.
With its initial assets from hVIVO plc (formerly named Open Orphan plc), an industry leading infectious disease and human challenge trials business, Poolbeg has access to knowledge, experience, and clinical data from over 20 years of human challenge trials. The Company is using these insights to acquire new assets as well as reposition clinical stage products, reducing spend and risk. Amongst its portfolio of exciting assets, Poolbeg has a small molecule immunomodulator for severe influenza (POLB 001) which has commenced its LPS human challenge trial with initial results expected by year end 2022; a first-in-class, intranasally administered RNA-based immunotherapy for respiratory virus infections (POLB 002); and a vaccine candidate for Melioidosis (POLB 003). The Company is also developing an oral vaccine delivery platform and is progressing two artificial intelligence (AI) programmes to accelerate the power of its human challenge model data and biobank, with outputs from the first programme expected by year end 2022.