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Alan Green and John Woolfitt, Director at Atlantic Capital Markets discuss the month ahead.
We discuss the US Fed August meeting, and indications from Fed boss Jerome Powell that the administration was prepared to ride with higher inflation around 2%. The markets seems to translate as low interest rates for years to come…John gives his view.
John discusses the resilience of mining and commodity stocks in the face of the economic turmoil and Coronavirus threat, along with some of the trading calls from Atlantic over the past month.
Finally we look at some trading ideas and upcoming corporate news in September from Halfords #HFD, Meggitt #MGGT, JD Sports #JD, Travis Perkins #TPK, Tullow Oil #TLW and Costain #COST. Given the volatility in the markets, John advises using the Atlantic Alerts system – moving after the results not before. “If the tide goes out, make sure you’ve got some shorts on”.
Alan Green and John Woolfitt, Director at Atlantic Capital Markets discuss the month ahead.
John says the markets are currently ‘punch drunk’ and says investors and traders need vision to look through the chatter. Atlantic are taking a ‘market neutral’ approach at present, and clients are seeing success with pairs trades and with larger mining stocks.
In summary, John touches on the upcoming launch of Atlantic Alpha, a market neutral hedged trading strategy that removes volatility, and provides some key points and trading ideas to help traders and investors in August.
- Keep your discipline, there are no points for bravery in these markets
- Watch the data…’Look Before You Leap’.
Rightmove RMV provides another warning from the housing industry that all is not well. Transactions in the first half of the year fell by 5% compared to last year and today’s update warns that economic conditions in the UK are such that consumer confidence may be impacted which could in turn affect the level of transactions and the number of agencies it operates.Despite the warning the interim dividend is to be increased by 14% from 22p per share to 25p., after rises of 10% and 14% in revenue and basic earnings per share, whilst underlying operating profit increased by 11%.
BT Group BT Underlying revenue fell 2% in the quarter to the 30th June due to regulated price reductions in Openreach and declines in enterprise businesses offsetting growth in consumer businesses. Adjusted3 profit before tax rose 3% to £816m., which the Chief Executive describes as a good start to the year.
Reckitt Benckiser Gp RB is increasing its interim dividend by 6% to 70.5 p. per share after the second quarter to the 30th June produced a 30% rise in net revenue at constant currency rates and adjusted earnings per share rose by 12%.The full year net revenue target has been increased from +13-14% to +14-15% after growth exceeded expectations.
Pearson plc PSON reports a rise of 46% in underlying operating profit for the half year to the 30th June with good growth in earnings per share. The interim dividend is being increased by 10% from 5p. per share to 5.5p. Expectations continue of a full year decline in net sales in the US.
Gear4music G4M updates that revenue growth continues to be strong and the relocation of the Swedish distribution centre and upgrade to UK distribution facilities are on-track to be delivered ahead of the peak trading period.
Hutchison China Medi HCH reports that it continues to deliver on its clear strategy of “developing its broad pipeline and cultivating and growing its capabilities in global drug discovery and development”. Half year group revenue tumbled from $126m. to $102m and last years net profit of $1.7m was turned into a net loss of $32.7m. for the six months to the end of June.
Barclays BARC – Reports a 13% increase in half-year PBT to £2,341m reflecting materially lower non-core losses of £647m (H116: £1,904m), while core PBT fell 25% to £2,988m impacted by PPI charges of £700m (H116: £400m). EPS came in at 11.8p, while tangible NAV fell to 284p (Dec 2016: 290p) as profit from continuing operations was offset by decreases across reserves.
BT Group BT.A – Q1 revenues rose 1% and underlying revenues rose 0.2%. Adj EBITDA fell 2% due to increased pension costs, business rates, sport programme rights and investment in customer experience. CEO Gavin Patterson said he is “confident in the outlook for our Company.”
Johnson Matthey JMAT – trading is in line with expectations. Q1 saw low single-digit sales growth at constant rates and double-digit reported sales growth. The restructuring programme announced in June which will deliver £10m cost savings in H2, with a further £15m cost savings in 2018/19.
Gear4music G4M – At today’s AGM the company will report that trading in the financial year to date is in line with Board expectations. Based on the overall performance, the Board is confident of another year of good progress.
International Airlines Group IAG – Results for the six months to June 30, 2017 include Q2 operating profit €805m before exceptional items (2016: €555m), with passenger unit revenue for the quarter up 1.5%, (4% at constant currency). Half year operating profit before exceptional items grew 37.3% to €975m
Rightmove RMV – reports an 11% increase in half-year revenue to £119.5m with underlying operating profit up 11% to £91m. Trading in July has been in line with the strong monthly revenue achieved in the first half of the year. The visibility gives the Board confidence in delivering its expectations for the current year.
Rightmove RMV describes its 2016 performance as outstanding and is raising its final dividend to 27p per share to give a total increase in the yearly dividends of 19%. Revenue and underlying operating profit both rose by 15%, whilst basic earnings per share were up by 18%. Strong traffic growth of 10% meant that visitors rose to 120m per month. The Board expects more success in 2017.
Intl Con Airline Group IAG That you will remember is the airline which used to have a short sensible name which everyone could remember but swopped it for one which is so long it has to make silly abbreviations to it. CEO Willie Walsh says it put in a good performance in a challenging year and the full year dividend is being increased by 17.5% from 20 to 23.5 cents per share. Passenger revenue fell by 2% and total revenue by 1.3% but operating profit managed a rise of 8.6%. Currency movements were unfavorable and produced an adverse impact of 460m. Euro. 2017 is expected to show a year on year improvement.
William Hill WMH faced a challenging year in 2016 but believes the corner has been turned with positive strength shown in all four divisions in the 7 weeks to 14th February with UK net gaming revenue up by 8% and UK sportsbook wagering by 10%. Profit before tax for the year to 27th December rose a smidgeon by 1% but earnings per share were down by 13%
IMI plc IMI Claims 2016 was a year of significant progress in difficult market conditions. Preliminary results for the year to 31st December show a rise of 6% in revenue, although on a like for like basis, it was down by 5%. Operating profit and profit before tax each rose by 1% and basic earnings per share was up by 2%. The final dividend is being raised by 1%, although there is a warning that the first half of 2017 is expected to see revenue fall by a similar amount to that experienced in the first half of 2016
Rightmove plc RMV Despite a 19% rise in the interim dividend, today’s half year results from Rightmove contain stark warnings about future trading. On the surface all looks rosy with revenue up by 16%, operating profit by 21% and basic earnings per share by 24%. Traffic growth has been strong with visits up by 15% and time per visit rising by 9%. Average revenue per advertiser has risen strongly to £830 per month and Rightmove still lists 40% more UK properties than any other portal The sky seems cloudless but as Rightmove freely admits, it is not.
The first warning signs to which it draws attention are that although first half transactions rose by 12%, they actually fell in quarter 2 on a year by year basis. Customer numbers since the start of the year have risen by only 1%. The company expects a reduction in the number of agency offices or New Home developments following a reduction in the number of housing transactions. Increased competition is expected to “impact” revenue growth, causing it to lose potential audience, advertisers and demand for additional advertising products.These problems will also be increased by what it describes as “new or disruptive technology and changing consumer behaviour, as will the economic uncertainty caused by the EU situation.
So far however, things have held up, with July trading being in line with the first half.
(Please note that our sponsor and author, may be regarded as a tiny, tiny competitor of RMV. We have endeavored to remain, as ever, objective)
Renishaw RSW The Chairman says he is pleased to report results revealing a fall in revenue of some 12% for the year to the end of June. Everything else has followed suite except for the dividend which gets a small uplift from 46.5p per share to 48p. Profit before tax has slumped from £144.2m to £80m and earnings per share are down from 167p to 94.9p. I wonder who writes the Chairmans scripts.
St. James Place STJ enjoyed record fund flows during the half year to the 30th June and is increasing its interim dividend by 15% to 12.33p per share. Operating profit rose from £265.3m to £284m.
Smurfit Kappa Group SKG A strong first half saw EBITDA grow by 8%, with especially strong volume growth in the Americas. Second quarter profit before tax was up by 27% and by 28% for the full half year. Revenue however rose by only 1% in each quarter..