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Buy Evraz #EVR says VectorVest. The turnaround over the past year has been nothing short of spectacular.

Evraz plc (EVR.L) is a steel, mining and vanadium business with operations in the Russian Federation, Ukraine, the United States, Canada, the Czech Republic, Italy, Kazakhstan and South Africa. The Company’s principal activities include manufacturing steel and steel products; iron ore mining and enrichment; coal mining; manufacturing vanadium products, and trading operations and logistics. Its segments include Steel; Steel, North America; Coal, and Other Operations. The Steel segment is engaged in the production of steel and related products at all mills except for those located in North America. The Steel, North America segment is engaged in the production of steel and related products in the United States and Canada. The Coal segment includes coal mining and enrichment. Other Operations include energy-generating companies, shipping and railway transportation companies.

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On March 1st 2018, EVR published FY results for the year ended 31 Dec 2017, which revealed strong free cash flow of $1.32bn (FY2016: $659m), with consolidated EBITDA of $2.62bn, up 70.2% from $1.54bn in FY2016. Strong market conditions and numerous improvement initiatives drove the EBITDA margin from 20.0% to 24.2%. EVR reported a further reduction in net debt to $4bn (FY2016: $4.8bn), with an overall net profit of $759m (FY2016: $188m loss). As a result a second interim dividend of $429.6m ($0.30 per share) has been declared, reflecting the Board’s confidence in the Group’s financial position and outlook. Looking forward, CEO Alexander Frolov said: “As we progress in 2018, we remain committed to our vision and believe that our pipeline of investment projects and operational efforts, combined with favourable market conditions will enable us to generate strong financial results and benefit all our stakeholders.”

As with so many stocks appearing across VectorVest metrics, the upsurge in production at EVR was identified on the RT (Relative Timing) metric as far back as June last year. RT is a fast, smart, accurate indicator of a stock’s price trend, and despite the near doubling in share price since June last year, EVR still logs a current rating of 1.75 on this metric, which is excellent on a scale of 0.00 – 2.00. Other high scoring metrics include RV (Relative Value) – an indicator of long-term price appreciation potential. Here EVR scores 1.62, which again is excellent on a scale of 0.00 to 2.00. EVR also scores an excellent GRT (Earnings Growth Rate) of 38%, and while the RS (Relative Safety) metric only registers a fair rating of 0.98 (scale of 0.00 to 2.00), trading at 437p the stock is still considerably undervalued against a current VectorVest valuation of 670p per share.

The chart of EVR.L is shown below in my normal format. The share is on a Buy recommendation on VectorVest and trending strongly upwards. The blue line study shows Earnings per Share (EPS) which has trebled over the last year. This is the engine that’s driving the share price upwards.

Summary: This steel and metals mining & production giant has enjoyed varied fortunes over the past 5 years, while debt concerns and a dip in steel prices in 2015 saw EVR test lows of just 60p. The turnaround over the past year has been nothing short of spectacular, and while the volatile nature of the stock warrants a low RS (Relative Safety) rating, the special dividend and bullish outlook announced by the board ensures a medium term buy rating and thumbs up from VectorVest. Buy.

Dr David Paul

March 6th 2018

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Corporate news review Thursday 10th August 2017

Amec Foster Wheeler AMFW reports net pre-tax exceptional gains of £47m in the half-year ended 30 June 2016 and says it has made a strong start to its transformation programme, with the first signs of progress now showing up in the order book.

Cineworld Group CINE reports half year revenue growth of 17.8%, with adjusted profit after tax up 23.5% to £42m. Looking forward the film release programme for the second half of the year includes a number of key releases namely “Justice League”, “Paddington 2”, “Thor: Ragnarok”, “Kingsman: The Golden Circle” and “Star Wars: Episode VIII”, and many more. Based on the H2 film slate the group remains confident of delivering a performance for the year as a whole in line with current market expectations.

DFS Furniture DFS publishes a pre-close trading update, and says H2 has been weaker than expected owing to significant declines in store footfall and customer orders across April, May and June. Overall, Group H2 revenues were 4% lower than the prior year, and following an increase of 7% in H1, expects to deliver growth of 1% over the year as a whole. FY EBITDA will be at the low end of the £82-£87m range previously given.

Evraz EVZ reports strong free half-year cashflow of $549m (H1 2016: $102m), and has reduced net debt to $4.28bn (FY2016: $4.8bn). An interim dividend of $0.30 per share will be paid, equalling an overall payout to shareholders of around $429.6m. Looking ahead, expects the results for the year to also reflect the positive trends on the global steel market.

Glencore GLEN reports adjusted half year EBITDA up 68% and EBIT up 334%, while net debt fell a further $1.6bn to $13.9bn from end of 2016. GLEN says its portfolio of Tier 1 commodities underpins ambitions to create significant long-term value for shareholders.

St. Ives Plc SIV updates on trading and says overall results for the year are expected to be at the top end of the range of current market expectations. H2 revenue was approx 17% ahead of the equivalent period last year and, excluding the effects of currency movements, like-for-like revenue growth was c12%. The group continues to be encouraged by the performance of the segment, which has now returned to strong like-for-like revenue growth, with a significantly improved operating margin. Trading conditions within Marketing Activation segment continues to be challenging, as reported in June 2017.

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