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Reiterate Buy Wincanton (WIN) says VectorVest. Substantial upside on offer over the coming year

Founded in 1925, Chippenham-based Wincanton plc (WIN.L) is a provider of supply chain solutions. Through its subsidiaries, WIN provides contract logistics services principally in the UK, Ireland, and Mainland Europe. The company provides supply chain services, including warehousing, transport and distribution, international supply chain, intermodal, freight management, high tech logistics, construction, records management, and home delivery; and value enhancing services, such as 4PL, consulting, inventory management, product manipulation, procurement, fleet management, reverse logistics, recycling, and retail solutions. It offers road, rail, barge, sea, and air transport solutions, as well as provides enabling services, including change/project management, solution design, technology, project financing, property management, health and safety/compliance, and industrial relations management. WIN serves consumer products, retail, automotive, energy and petroleum, industrial, agri-food products, chemical, high tech, and food service customers.

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On May 17th 2017, WIN announced full year results, revealing a 17.6% increase in pre-tax profits to £41.5m, on revenues down 2.3% to £1.11bn, primarily due to the disposal of WRM and exit from loss making Pullman home shopping contracts. Closing net debt fell by £15.2m to £24.3m (2016: £39.5m) on the back of strong cash generation, and WIN paid a final dividend of 6.1p, (full year dividend of 9.1p). CEO Adrian Colman said Wincanton had delivered “a strong set of financial results, supported by a good stream of contract renewals and new business wins in the year. “ He added that the business is “well positioned to invest and continue to grow in attractive markets such as eCommerce and construction.”

I wrote an article on WIN in December 2016, pointing out how the VectorVest indicators had picked up on the start of a recovery in the stock as far back as Q2 2016. Trading then at 233p, WIN has since moved higher to push over 300p. Today, key VectorVest indicators including Earnings Growth Rate (GRT), (reflects a company’s one to three year forecasted earnings growth rate in percent per year), log a rating of 16%, which is very good. Additionally, the VST-Vector, a master indicator that combines a number of key VectorVest metrics rates WIN with a score a VST rating of 1.26, which is very good on a scale of 0.00 to 2.00. Last but by no means least, VectorVest raises the value of the stock from our December target of 356p to 422p.


The chart of WIN.L is shown above in candlestick format with the VectorVest calculated valuation shown as the green line study above the price. The share has recently broken out of a 5 wave triangular consolidation pattern after testing major trendline support. In the last few days WIN has broken above a 52 week high and is on a BUY recommendation on VectorVest. Technical analysts measure the height of the “flagpole” or upward move which precedes the triangle to calculate a target for the move. The technical target by this method (known as a measured move) is around 370.

Summary: Since we first identified WIN as a growth prospect, the company has cut out loss making operations, reduced debt and substantially improved earnings. With the CEO upbeat about the stream of contract renewals and new business wins, VectorVest metrics have re-rated the stock with a new target price of 421p, meaning WIN now offers substantial upside over the coming year. The view is also supported by the technical charting breakout. Buy

David Paul

May 24th 2017

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