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Atlantic View – Streamlining and Resilience Have Laid The Foundations For Recovery at Shell #RDSB

Streamlining and Resilience Have Laid The Foundations For Recovery at Shell #RDSB
by John Woolfitt, Atlantic Capital Markets
Fundamentals and Statement Summary
Anglo Dutch oil giant Royal Dutch Shell (RDSB) today announced results for Q2 2020, which include impairments of $16.8 billion post-tax (6.1% of average capital employed), reflecting revised price and margin assumptions. Shell reported ‘very strong crude and oil products trading and optimisation results’ and a resilient marketing performance, and said it was on track to deliver cost reduction targets, with a $1.1 billion reduction in underlying opex compared with Q1 2020, delivering a reduction target of $3 – $4 billion. 

Adjusted earnings came in at $638 million, with $6.5 billion in cash flow from operations and $243 million of free cash-flow. Return on Average Capital Employed (ROACE) came in at 5.3%, while gearing is now at 32.7%. Total dividends distributed to Royal Dutch Shell plc shareholders in the quarter were $1.2 billion. An interim Q2 dividend of US$ 0.16 per A ordinary share and B ordinary share was declared.

Royal Dutch Shell Chief Executive Officer, Ben van Beurden said that Shell “has delivered resilient cash flow in a remarkably challenging environment.”

“We continue to focus on safe and reliable operations and our decisive cash preservation measures will underpin the strengthening of our balance sheet.”

He added that a number of new working practices had “accelerated digitalisation across the company”..while the oil giant’s high-quality integrated portfolio, disciplined execution and forward-looking strategy “enable sustained competitive free cash flow generation.” 

Chart and Technicals
Source Factset & Hargreaves Lansdown

RDSB shares suffered a precipitous COVID driven fall in February / March 2020, briefly touching below £9 per share – a 30+ year low. The stock recovered the 50-day moving average at the start of April, and intermittently held that level until late June. Given the stock is trading at these historic lows, if Shell recovers and holds the 50-day moving average, currently at 1264p, our next target will be the gently falling benchmark 200-day moving average, currently at 1,725p.

Summary and Atlantic View

A darling of the FTSE100, and up to recently, a cornerstone investment among leading fund managers, the COVID crisis has seen Shell battling a seemingly existential crisis on a par with the challenges face by the venerable oil giant during WWII. However, the company has delivered a remarkably resilient performance during the depths of the crisis, and as CEO Ben van Beurden said in his Q2 results statement video clip, cash preservation (£1.1bn reduction in opex), streamlining and digitalisation have all been prioritised during the quarter, and these will in turn enable sustained competitive free cash flow generation going forward. As travel and movement starts to pick up on the back of expectations of vaccines and effective testing measures for COVID, it is reasonable to expect that energy and resource companies will start to return to some semblance of normality. Historically Q3 has been a strong earnings quarter for Shell, and with the measures management have already taken to streamline the company, Atlantic Capital Markets are backing Shell as a recovery play, firstly to regain the moving 50-day level at 1264p, and shooting for the 200-day benchmark by the end of the year. There is the added dividend bonus to boot, and although the payout was cut from 47 cents to 16 cents in Q1, (same for Q2), investors can still pick up the stock and collect the Q2 payout before the August 13 ex-dividend deadline. Atlantic Rating: Buy.
To take advantage of this trading idea, speak to a member of our dealing team on 01872 229000 or visit the Atlantic Capital Markets website here

Atlantic Capital Markets Month Ahead – July 2020

Alan Green talks to John Woolfitt, Director at multi award winning broking and investment firm Atlantic Capital Markets. John looks forward to the coming month, and discusses US job numbers, Boris and Build Build Build, and the raft of UK job cuts. He then discusses ‘Covid’ stocks, including Novacyt #NCYT, upcoming key corporate announcements for July, including Royal Dutch Shell #RDSB and Hutchison China Meditech #HCM and trading ideas from the Atlantic dealing floor. John finishes with a recap on key points and trading ideas to help traders and investors in July.

After 1 hour 12 minutes, Alan Green talks Blue Prism #PRSM, Shell #RDSB, Braveheart Investments #BRH & Tiziana Life Sciences #TILS on Vox Markets podcast

Alan Green talks Blue Prism #PRSM, Shell #RDSB, Braveheart Investments #BRH & Tiziana Life Sciences #TILS on Vox Markets podcast. 1 hour 12 minutes in.

Alan Green on why you should still hold Shell #RDSB, plus Capita #CPI & Braveheart #BRH on UK Investor Mag podcast

Alan Green and Jonathan Roy discuss why you should still hold Shell #RDSB, plus Alan discusses Capita #CPI & Braveheart #BRH on the UK Investor Mag podcast.

Alan Green discusses bank divi cuts, i3 Energy, Bidstack & Destiny Pharma with Jonathan Roy on the UK Investor Magazine podcast

Alan Green discusses bank divi cuts, i3 Energy #I3E, Bidstack #BIDS & Destiny Pharma #DEST with Jonathan Roy on the UK Investor Magazine podcast.

Alan Green talks market stimulus, oil stocks incl #RDSB & #I3E, plus the Coronavirus battle & #ORPH on UK Investor Magazine podcast

Alan Green talks market stimulus, oil stocks incl Royal Dutch Shell #RDSB & i3 Energy #I3E, plus the Coronavirus battle & Open Orphan #ORPH on UK Investor Magazine podcast. Click on the image to listen.

Alan Green talks market crash, Oil, Banks, Insurers and Coronavirus on the UK Investor Magazine podcast

Alan Green talks market crash, Oil, Banks, Insurers and Coronavirus with Jonathan Roy on the UK Investor Magazine podcast. Stocks covered include Shell #RDSB, #Aviva #AV, Legal & General #LGEN, Novacyt #NCYT, Tiziana Life #TILS and others.

Alan Green & Sarah Lowther discuss the market crash, lessons from China, plus an array of stocks including Tiziana Life #TILS & Open Orphan #ORPH on the Total Market Solutions podcast

Friday The 13th & The Weekend Podcast

Alan Green Joins Sarah Lowther To Talk All Things Markets

During this weekend podcast, and in the wake of a colossal fall, we look at markets which ended the week on Friday the 13th, so far we’ve witnessed an emergency rate cut by the bank of England as the FTSE had its worst day in 33yrs.

Alan Green shares some insight on the most recent events surrounding Corona Virus, as he extrapolates what he can from the lessons in China, the initiative adopted by the UK plus an array of market opportunities, on the assumption one assumes a strong stomach and constitution toward volatility!

Stocks covered include #AZN #GSK #TILS #ORPH #RDSB #TSCO #SBRY #OCDO #JDW

Alan Green talks market crash, scaling in, Shell #RDSB, Open Orphan #ORPH & Eddie Stobart #ESL on Vox Markets podcast

Alan Green discusses the market crash, scaling in, Shell #RDSB, Open Orphan #ORPH & Eddie Stobart #ESL with Justin Waite on the Vox Markets podcast. Interview starts 9 minutes 49 seconds in.

Ken Baksh – March Market & Investment Report

March 2020 Market Report 

During one-month period to 29th February 2020, major equity markets registered large falls, rising initially and then falling sharply, mainly on growing coronavirus concerns. The FTSE ALL-World Index dropped by 9.62% over the period. The VIX index rose sharply (+160%) to end the period at 46.22, a level reflecting elevated investor concern. Fixed interest product displayed mixed performances with core government bonds receiving some “safe haven” buying, while more speculative issues fell in price terms. The yen strengthened while the pound dropped a little, the latter moving on more adverse Brexit news. The Chinese Renminbi was relatively stable as was the local equity market on the perception that the virus was contained locally. Commodities displayed a significantly weaker trend, the exceptions being part of the PGM complex. 

Aggregate world hard economic data continues to show 2020 expansion of below 3.0%, although forecasts of future growth continue to be reduced by the leading independent international organizations. The estimates of the economic damage caused by the coronavirus, vary enormously. Demand, and supply, disruptions could cut anything from 50 bp to 400bp from an already weaker global economic estimate. Related corporate profit warnings are rapidly increasing. Compared with other “shocks”, there is debate about the actual immediate effectiveness of monetary policy in easing the situation when companies and individuals can’t / won’t conduct their normal activities. 

There appears to be a growing chorus of further longer-term action on the fiscal front e.g. infrastructure spending, as other instruments e.g. interest rates, may have limited potential from current levels. Fluctuating currencies continued to play an important part in asset allocation decisions, sterling/yen being a recent example, while some emerging market currencies have been exceptionally volatile e.g. Turkey. Movements in the $/Yuan are also taking on increasing significance. 

European economic indicators continue to show very anaemic growth, even before corona virus adjustments, German 2019 GDP, for instance rising at just 0.6%, the lowest rate of growth since 2013. Political events have featured further signs of discontent in Germany and France (pension and other reforms). The backdrop for the current European Budget debate is far from encouraging. 

US market watchers focussing on more domestic issues have been watching the race for the Democratic leadership (Super Tuesday March 3rd), while Trump’s impeachment issues have disappeared, for now. US economic data indicated a somewhat softer than expected end to the year with provisional 2019 growth of 2.3%. Corporate results/forward looking statements so far have been mixed and the corona-virus effect on both demand and global supply chains, is being increasingly discussed. Official interest rates have been reduced three times to a range of 1.5% to 1.75%, much as expected, and a “pause” was indicated by Fed Chairman Powell at recent meetings, including that held in the last week of January, although recent events (softer US data and growing corona-virus concerns) are likely to reactivate more dovish rhetoric and action. 

In the Far East, China /US trade talks dominated the headlines for the first couple of weeks of January, but this was quickly followed by news of the corona virus emanating in China, and now affecting much of the region, especially South Korea at the time of writing.. 

Japanese annual economic growth slowed markedly in the fourth quarter of 2019, the autumn VAT increase, typhoons and coronavirus all contributing to the reduced activity. Recent political 

appointees, plus the fundamentals mentioned above, indicate a continuation of the dovish economic stance. 

The UK continued to report somewhat mixed economic data with stable developments on the labour front, more buoyant January retails sales but poor corporate investment, inflation higher than expected (1.9%), and public finances deteriorating again. Business and market attention, both domestic and international, is clearly focussed on ongoing BREXIT process under new Prime Minister, Boris Johnson, where at the time of writing, the UK and their EU counterparts are starting to discuss the thorny details of the UK’s departure. The Bank of England Governor has made frequent references to the unsettling effects of any unsatisfactory Brexit outcome, as have a growing number of business leaders and independent academic bodies. Political factors aside, economic and corporate figures will inevitably be distorted over coming months. GDP growth of around 1% for full year 2019 looks likely, with a similar projection for 2020.On 30th January, Mark Carney officially reduced the Bank’s estimate of annual GDP growth to 1.1% for the next three years. 

Equities 

Global Equities showed very large moves over February 2020, a month of two distinct halves. The FTSE ALL World Index registered a fall of 9.62% over February to a level of 338.41 and now down 8.65% since the year end. The UK broad and narrow market indices, both fell by over 9% during February, underperforming the sterling adjusted world index by over 7.5% since the beginning of the year. Ironically, Chinese equities were one of the few areas to show a positive return over February. The VIX, now at a value of 46.22, is at a level considerable above that prevailing in recent years though down on the extreme levels see at the time of the 2008/2009 market meltdown. 

UK Sectors 

A very mixed month for UK sectors with oil and mining bearing the brunt of the falls on global growth concerns while utilities were relatively stable and in fact are one of the few sectors still showing a year to date positive return. 

Fixed Interest 

Gilt prices rose 0.8% over the month, the 10-year UK yield standing at 0.44% currently. Other ten-year yields closed the month at US, 1.16%, Japan, -0.16%, and Germany, -0.61%. UK corporate bond prices fell over the month, as did more speculative and emerging market debt prices. Interestingly, emerging market debt now yields LESS than an ETF of UK high yielding shares See my recommendations in preference shares, convertibles, corporate bonds, floating rate bonds, speculative high yield etc. A list of my top thirty income ideas (many yielding around 7%) from over 10 different asset classes is also available to subscribers. 

Foreign Exchange 

FX moves during February featured a weaker pound (partly on re-emerging Brexit concerns) and a stronger Yen(safe haven?),the cross rate moving 3.6%.In sterling adjusted terms both the Nikkei and the S&P,the better performing major regions, are off about 6.5% year to date versus the FTSE 100 down 12.8% 

Commodities 

A generally poor month for commodities on corona virus, global growth concerns. Gold, silver and palladium bucked the trend, the latter now up over 40% so far this year! Have you checked under your car recently? 

Looking Forward 

Over the coming quarter, health concerns, geo-political events and Central Bank actions/statements meeting, will continue to dominate news headlines while the brunt of the corporate reporting season will also add stock specific catalysts, both positive and negative. Calls for more fiscal response on the part of governments opposed to limited Central Bank monetary fire power will intensify, in some cases allied to environmental issues. 

US watchers will continue to speculate on the timing and number of further interest rate moves during the 2020/2021 period while longer term Federal debt dynamics, Iran ,corona virus effects, election debate and trade” war” winners/losers (a moving target) will increasingly affect sentiment. Corporate earnings growth will be subject to even greater analysis, amidst a growing list of obstacles and over 20% of US companies have already made coronavirus “adjustments”. 

In Japan market sentiment may be calmer after recent political and economic events although international events e.g. exchange rates and tariff developments, will affect equity direction. More equity specific issues e.g share buy-backs, ETF developments, TOPIX constituent changes, should also be monitored. 

There is increasing speculation that China may announce more even stimulative measures, as the coronavirus effect,though moderating now, struck an economy that was already weakening, and key $/Yuan exchange rate levels are being watched closely. 

European investment mood will be tested by generally sluggish economic figures, corona virus arrival, and an increasingly unstable political backdrop, now encompassing France and Germany, Spain and Italy. 

Hard economic data (especially final GDP, corporate investment, exports) and various sentiment/residential property indicators are expected to show that UK economic growth continues to be lack-lustre (1% ish) and recent coronavirus concerns have soon dampened any post Brexit/election enthusiasm. It is highly likely that near term quarterly figures (economic and corporate) will be distorted (both ways), and general asset price moves will be confused, in my view, by a mixture of currency development, political machinations, international perception and interest rate expectations. 

In terms of current recommendations, 

Depending on benchmark, and risk attitude, first considerations should be appropriate cash/hedging stance and the degree of asset diversification (asset class, individual investment and currency). 

An increased weighting in absolute return (but watch costs, underlying holdings and history very carefully), alternative income and other vehicles may be warranted as equity/gilt returns will become increasingly lower and more volatile and holding greater than usual cash balances may also be appropriate, including some outside sterling. Both equity and fixed interest selection should be very focussed. Apart from global equity drivers e.g. Corona virus, slowing economic and corporate growth, tariff wars and limited monetary response levers, there are many localised events e.g. UK trade re-negotiation, US elections, European political uncertainty that could upset markets. 

  • I have kept the UK at an overweight position on valuation grounds and full details are available in the recent quarterly review. However, extra due diligence in stock/fund selection is strongly advised, due to ongoing health, macro-economic and political uncertainty. Sterling volatility should also be factored into the decision, making process. Be aware that global demand shocks could impact certain large FTSE sectors e.g corona virus, while domestic plays more be more correlated with Brexit statements. 
  • Within UK sectors, some of the traditionally defensive, and often high yielding sectors such as utilities have shown resilience during the recent market wobble and this could continue. Many financials are also showing confidence by dividend hikes and buy-backs etc. Oil and gas majors will be worth holding after the flat 2019 performance, remembering that the larger cap names such as Royal Dutch and BP will be better placed than some of the purer exploration plays in the event of a softer oil price. Indiscriminate selling for environmental/virus reasons does seem an overreaction, in my view. Small/mid- cap domestic stocks and funds received some post-election Brexit support.
  • Continental European equities are preferred to those of USA, for reasons of valuation, and Central bank policy, although political developments, coronavirus and slowing economic growth need to be monitored closely. I suggest moving the European exposure to “neutral “from overweight after the 2019 outperformance. European investors may be advised to focus more on domestic, rather than export related themes. Look at underlying exposure of your funds carefully and remember that certain European and Japanese companies provide US exposure, without paying US prices. 
  • I have recently written on Japan, and I would continue to overweight this market within a diversified portfolio(remember FX as well as local market movement), despite the recent under-performance. Smaller cap/ domestic focussed funds may outperform broader index averages e.g. JP Morgan Japanese Smaller Companies and Legg Mason. 
  • Alternative fixed interest vehicles, which continue to perform relatively well, in total return terms, have attractions e.g. preference shares, convertibles, for balanced, cautious accounts and energy/ emerging/speculative grade for higher risk e.g. EnQuest,Eros. These remain my favoured plays within the fixed interest space. See recent note 
  • UK bank preference shares still look particularly attractive and could be considered as alternatives to the ordinary shares in some cases. Bank balance sheets are in much better shape and yields of 6%-7% are currently available on related issues while a yield of 9.1% p.a., paid quarterly, is my favoured more speculative idea. 
  • Alternative income and private equity names have exhibited their defensive characteristics and are still favoured as part of a balanced portfolio. Reference could also be made to selected renewable funds including recent issues. Selected infrastructure funds are also recommended for purchase especially now that the political risk has been reduced somewhat and that the theme is likely to be re-iterated at the time of the imminent UK Budget. 
  • Any new commitments to the commercial property sector should be more focussed on direct equities and investment trusts than unit trusts (see my recent note comparing open ended and closed ended funds), thus exploiting the discount and double discount features respectively as well as having liquidity and trading advantages. The sector is starting to see more support, and corporate activity from both domestic and international sources seems bound to increase. 
  • I suggest a very selective approach to emerging equities and would continue to avoid bonds. The current 5.44% yield on emerging market debt still seems mean to me, compared with 6.52% on a pooled UK equity ETF. Although the overall valuation for emerging market equities is relatively modest, there are large differences between individual countries. It is worth noting that several emerging economies in both Asia and Latin America showed first quarter 2019 GDP weakness even before the onset of any possible tariff/virus effects. A mixture of high growth/high valuation e.g. India, Vietnam and value e.g. Russia could yield rewards and there are signs of funds moving back to South Africa on political change. Turkish assets seem likely to remain highly volatile in the short term and much of South America is either in a crisis mode e.g. Venezuela, Argentina or embarking on new political era e.g. Mexico and Brazil (economic recovery?). As highlighted in the quarterly, Chinese index weightings are expected to increase quite significantly over coming years, and there are currently large inflows into this area following the price weakness of 2018. One additional factor to consider when benchmarking emerging markets is the large percentage now attributable to technology. A longer-term index argument is also being made in favour of Gulf States, although governance issues remain a concern. 

Full quarter report available to clients/subscribers and suggested portfolio strategy/individual recommendations will be available soon. Ideas for a ten stock FTSE portfolio, model pooled fund portfolios (cautious, balanced adventurous, income), 30 stock income lists, defensive list, hedging ideas, and a list of shorter-term low risk/ high risk ideas can also be purchased, as well as bespoke portfolio construction/restructuring. 

Holders of pooled funds should continue to switch the balance away from unit trusts to a mixture of investment trusts and ETF’s.I have written on this many times over recent years. The Woodford example and, in general, the conflicts between certain short-term fund flows and long term assets, will only increase in my view. I have regularly updated model portfolios comprising some direct investments, investment trusts and ETF’s, across different risk categories, for those interested. 

Feel free to contact regarding any investment project. 

Good luck with performance! 

Ken Baksh Bsc,Fellow (UK Society of Investment Professionals) 

kenbaksh@btopenworld.com 

1st March 2020 

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